It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.

Very early start on the radio this morning, but Jamie Dimon and I are aligned; the global economy is at an inflection point as higher rates, stickflation, debt and climate costs hit the reset button. It doesn’t have to be a bear-reset and could present massive opportunities! Embrace change!

Nigeria is under attack by cryptocurrencies, says the Government. The Naira has collapsed as locals flee to Bitcoin and Tether – where “crypto-predators” are scamming them. Is this the future? Could it happen to the dollar market as the global economy de-dollarises, leaving a monetary vacuum? What will it mean for the mighty Treasury market?

It’s a big week for Central Banks: the BOJ on Tuesday, The Fed on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday… but none of them are set to ease rates (the BoJ might even hike). It’s a very different market to what traders expected earlier this year. This is becoming the Year of Normalisation.

 The UK’s broken infrastructure will cost trillions to repair. Water needs £150-200 bln – roughly what Water Companies have paid (PV) in dividends since 1990. Thatcher sold water for £1 bln. Today we face a £200 bln repair bill. Discuss.

Nvidia’s extraordinary rise comes from being the picks and shovels supplier to the AI revolution. It’s not just MegaTechs coat-tailing Nvidia that will win, but productivity gains from AI could counter the growing debt/gowth crisis in the West. AI is more complex than just a single stock.

Two things worry me: the consequences of a Commercial Property bust, and the potential of a US$ Bond Crash. Equities merely reflect dimly their relative value to real assets and rates – and will suffer accordingly. Not to worry though.. the IMF says no recession!

The multiple problems facing the UK will not be solved by Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party trying to be better Tories than the Tories. We don’t need better Tories. We need a better UK.  

Confidence is critical in any financial decision. Markets rise or fall based on the confidence in the narrative; be it companies, sovereign bonds, or disruptive tech, but sometimes it becomes too exhausting to keep fooling ourselves.

The nations of the West face crisis: how to fund vital infrastructure and critical defence spending without upsetting bond markets? They are worrying about the wrong things. Time to rethink government spending and how to do it.