Blain’s EXTRA Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UPDATE – UK DEFENCE MINISTER RESIGNS
“Et tu Brute?” … “Yet Brutus is an honourable man.”
UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news.
Link to Podcast
This Morning Porridge Extra continues the theme of the missing UK Defence Investment Plan discussed in this morning’s comment – UK Defence Investment Plan Delayed Again.
Well, that was a surprise. I had heard Environment Minister Ed Miliband was pricked to throw a resignation tantrum over the defence budget. (I’ve been told it came pretty close.)
This morning it was UK Defence Minister, John Healey, who threw in the towel and resigned. The MoD had identified a £28 bln funding gap over the next 10-years but were willing to work with less. On Monday he was told it would be a measly £13.5 bln – less than half the ask. Healey wasn’t prepared to stick around the failing Starmer regime and walked. To be honest… a solid labour MP Healey might be, but he won’t be much missed in the defence community.
His exit confirms the long awaited and repeatedly delayed UK Defence Investment Plan will be worse than Defence watchers and the Military feared. There simply won’t be enough money to deliver all that is required to simply stand still. Although defence spending will rise, the plan will be insufficient to enact the kind of substantial changes required for the UK’s armed forces to actively engage in the modern, swiftly evolving battlespace and act as a deterrence to aggressors. It will leave the nation looking weak and see the UK’s influence pushed aside in the rapidly forming new European Defence Union. The French will be delighted.
The problem isn’t just money, although Healey was pretty blunt about his reasons for quitting – his resignation statement charging that the Government is unwilling to commit sufficient resources to protect the country, and putting servicemen at risk. It’s also political.
Yesterday there were rumours a cabinet resignation had been threatened, but the miserable state of the UK’s defence meant most folk were pretty certain Healey was going to get a promise of sufficient cash to start to put the Royal Navy, Royal Air Force and the British Army back on some kind of track. Wrong.
The rumours murmured of cuts to the environment budget – hence the noise that Ed Miliband had been put on “resignation watch” earlier this week. Despite being an unimpressive leader previously, (generally dismissed as “the wrong Miliband”), Ed Miliband is a potential challenger to Starmer should Andy Burnham lose the Makerfield by-election that could all but crown him the UK’s new Prime Ministerial saviour on June 18th. It seems Starmer felt he had to pander to Miliband rather than make tough decisions to cut welfare and environment spending to defend the nation.
Instead, it’s Healey that’s gone, delivering yet another bombshell to the already tattered government. He said the DIP financial settlement: “falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time.” Gilts wobbled as the political competency issues became clear.
It’s all a game of politics. The next piece to fall could be the Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton. Will he do the honourable thing and follow Healey out of office? In recent years the Ministry of Defence has become decidedly more political – the Chief of the Defence Staff was once chosen by the previous Chief to ensure continuity and independence. Now it’s a political appointment – chosen by the premier to align promotion with the Government line. That why Knighton’s next move matters – does he toe the government line, or serve his nation?
The resignation confirms Starmer is the fundamental weak link in the Government – “unable” to herd his cabinet into agreement on the difficult decisions that must be taken. That’s going to be an issue for the Gilts market – begging the question if a government led by a man unable to impose his will over the burgeoning welfare budget and favouring other departments over the primary state duty of defence and the security of the realm, can be relied upon to ensure prompt repayment of principal and interest.
The Treasury, under Rachel Reeves, was opposed any increase in defence spending, demanding all spending is constrained to stick to the budgets. That’s an argument that’s got defence watchers worried – clearly the UK swims in increasingly dangerous waters as the Transatlantic Relationship flounders, Russia becomes more aggressive, and Europe rearms. For the UK’s Treasury to ignore the threat these present, but also the opportunities they represent in terms of the defence multiplier is worrying.
Either the Commies have captured the Treasury – or they are just too blind and foolish to understand what’s going on.
Time for change….
How will Gilts React?
Back tomorrow….
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
