The amount of nonsense being written about the imminent collapse of the UK Gilts Market defies logic and experience. The numbers show demand for Gilts remains solid – but the growing, and often invented negativity over rising Lond-End yields threatens confidence in the UK’s bond market. Yield curves are steepening around the globe!  

The Fed has fallen. What will negative real yields do the US economy? It will likely further fuel asset speculation and lead to renewed QE as global buyers exit the US bond market. Using inflation to wipe the budget deficit may even be part of the plan. The path ahead looks increasingly fraught. Been here before.

There are no thin summer markets – just an overload of improbable factors to process. How can you value the price of a stock market when the basis behind it – the economy, its financial system and its society - is under intolerable stress?

The scale of the UK’s funding crisis is becoming increasingly apparent. It can be fixed – but needs political sacrifice. “Changing Policy” and backing off promises has costs and consequences. The UK is not in dire peril - it remains a fine, innovative and strong economy, but we need to get real on spending and how its funded.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves should be angry, not tearful. The multiple crises facing the UK’s funding have been long-term in creation. Reeves has the opportunity to fix them. The recipe is simple; common sense, political discipline, a dash for growth and a spicing of Gilts Liability Management. C’mon Rachel… you can do it.

Trump has been sending “for your immediate attention”, letters to former friends and allies hiking tariffs and threatening retribution if they retaliate. Yawn. Who cares? The Global economy gets it. America is no longer America. Global trade is shifting. Excellent – that spells opportunity!

What an interesting time we live in. Uncertainty, instability, markets hitting new highs as fears plumb new depths. Nothing to worry about. The global economy and markers are changing. Just how we won’t know till we can see it in the rear-view mirror.

Yesterday, the UK unveiled its long-awaited Strategic Defence Review. The implications for markets, both for Bonds and Equity, and the cohesion of the West are massive. The SDR represents an opportunity and challenge.

When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a politically motivated tax-cutting Big, Beautiful Bill. Not!  A Debt Storm is coming. Batten down the hatches.

Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.