The Russians have captured the FT, apparently! The headline that Gilts are about to crash because the Government will borrow more to increase defence spending is Pravda 101. The reality is Gilts should rally on increasing the strategic deterrence that defence spending will create.

Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potemkin Economy era. This will not end well.

The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicians were serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!

In bonds there is truth – at least there was until political campaigners realised what a powerful tool they might be to amplify political failure. Destabilising markets by roiling bonds is unlikely to end well. The consequences could be fearful.

There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. Rachel Reeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the reality is maybe very different. There is not that much [more than usual] to worry about.

The debt crises that apparently threaten to engulf Paris and London are very, very different. Paris is in genuine financial and market trouble. London has a perception problem.

Both crises are rooted in political/fiscal miscalculations and the widening polarisation between political populism and conventional politics. The crisis in Paris is very real, but the one in London is largely driven by Doom-Scrolling financial misdirection of doubtful right-wing provenance, looking to snipe the centrist Labour govt.

If there is one thing we Brits are really, really good at its making things difficult for ourselves. We talk ourselves down and fall into doom and gloom, despite knowing for certain is the sun will come up tomorrow… “Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope!”

Argentina’s financial crises are legendary – a 10th default is now in prospect. President Milei’s efforts to turn the nation around through austerity, government cuts, and economic shock therapy made him a poster boy for the Libertarian Project 2025. Surprisingly, they appeared to be working, till suddenly they aren’t. Now the USA looks set to bail out the nation.

Gold has been an absolute portfolio star this year. It’s ridden the markets rising fears on sovereign debt, inflation and political incompetency. What will drive it back down? It seems unlikely fears will lessen, especially if predictions of rising instability and stagflation prove founded.