Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

Powell was sacked and then he wasn’t. The market tumbled but swiftly bounced. It was another day of training markets for disruption. The reality is the ongoing shenanigans are undermining confidence in the Fed ahead of what could be a very testing time for the US economy when Trump policies start to bite.

The scale of the UK’s funding crisis is becoming increasingly apparent. It can be fixed – but needs political sacrifice. “Changing Policy” and backing off promises has costs and consequences. The UK is not in dire peril - it remains a fine, innovative and strong economy, but we need to get real on spending and how its funded.

Trump has been sending “for your immediate attention”, letters to former friends and allies hiking tariffs and threatening retribution if they retaliate. Yawn. Who cares? The Global economy gets it. America is no longer America. Global trade is shifting. Excellent – that spells opportunity!

What an interesting time we live in. Uncertainty, instability, markets hitting new highs as fears plumb new depths. Nothing to worry about. The global economy and markers are changing. Just how we won’t know till we can see it in the rear-view mirror.

Global Oil Markets have shrugged off the supply threats. Markets seen unfazed by the economic consequences of trade ructions and tariffs. Rising instability elicits little more than yawns. Are we walking into a crisis?

Markets may become less frenetic now the initial Trump phase is over – but that doesn’t mean they get more stable. News flow and data will continue to show a world changing swiftly, where crisis stemming from US assets (watch Treasuries like a hawk), remains a high probability.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 24th April 2025 – Private Assets, Contagion [...]

This week will be about Jay Powell – how will Trump deal with the resolute Fed chairman? Experience suggests badly. As the effects of tariffs on the US economy begin to bite, and the weakness of Trump’s negotiating positions become increasing clear.. fewer and fewer folk will be talking about buying-the-dip.

The irresistible force of Trump has hit the immovable rock of Economic and Market Reality. The inconsistencies of Trump’s tariff policies - the centre-plank of his economic understanding - have been exposed as bogus. It begs the question – What Next? Which is why markets are braced for even more dislocation.