UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being blamed for the Gilt Bear market. Harsh and unfair – it’s a global thing. Investors fear sticky inflation as much as rising debt quantums, tax cuts and spending plans. A global bond bear market brings consequences – be aware of them.
Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th Jan 2025 – Beware rising complacency [...]
It’s clear 2025 will be a challenging year – there are plenty of issues to cause markets headaches, but opportunities in abundance. The primary problems may come from the ongoing politics of disruption and the likelihood electorates are going to remain profoundly disappointed.
One man’s bubble is another’s irrefutable investment thesis. After a year when so many markets, and individual assets, have defied expectations and common sense, one stands out for its incredible and largely speculative upside – Bitcoin. No other “asset” so divides the market. Time for a deep dive into what it might and might not be.
2024 was an “interesting” year – big questions about inflation, growth and geopolitics were all asked, but answers remain difficult. The politics of populism now dominates the agenda. Issues like climate change and ESG have been pushed aside. The lessons don’t change – trade what the market thinks, but invest in facts and likely outcomes.
The US equity market now stands at over 70% of global market cap – is that sustainable? Many folk think not – concerned about overvaluations, speculation and geopolitics, but my great chum Julian Wheeler digs through the many reasons it became inevitable and will likely be sustained.
A big question for 2025 is how resilient the US Treasury market will be to tax cuts, spending hikes and the deficit surpassing $40 bln in 2026! Trump is going to slash spending – taking tips from Argentina’s Javier Milei. Will it work – and is it suitable policy? Here in the UK, govt is taking tough decisions, but we are poised at the edge of the rabbit hole as polarisation looks set to dominate!
This morning’s Guest Post is from Adrian Jones, who argues there are clues in the fate of Henry VIII’s fixer Thomas Cromwell as to Elon Musk’s possible future. Society swirls around themes and narratives, and being caught on the wrong side of them as they chop and change can be fatal! Let’s not lose our heads over complex issues like Climate Change and Vaccinations, but understand them and the power of consensus…
Politics was an overarching theme in 2024 – and, regrettably, will remain so in 2025 as global investors figure out likely policy action by central banks and the growth outlook for 2025. “This time it’s different” (TTID) and FOMO remain the most malign forces acting on asset prices, but is a new full blown European Sov Debt Crisis also on the cards?
Who would possibly want to be a billionaire? Hated by the mob, a victim of evil governments holding you back with tax threats while denying your basic human rights – like a platinum gold bank account! Give me poverty anytime…
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