Donald Trump never disappoints in terms of “interesting”. MAGA/Trump might unravel, and Trump spontaneously combust, due to Epstein  – but conflict was what we knew Trump would bring to the table. The real risk to markets is probably the US Consumer. They are not as resilient as the rosy earnings season thinks.

2024 was an “interesting” year – big questions about inflation, growth and geopolitics were all asked, but answers remain difficult. The politics of populism now dominates the agenda. Issues like climate change and ESG have been pushed aside. The lessons don’t change – trade what the market thinks, but invest in facts and likely outcomes.

The figures dominating the news and market flow are Nigel Farage, Donald Trump and Roaring Kitty? Where did it all go wrong? These “players” are overturning all the rules. Can markets survive when the fundamentals around them are undermined to such a dramatic extent?

The strength and resilience of US employment, and the growing sense a recession has been dodged, hides fundamental imbalance: if consumers are too broke to consume, then how are corporate earnings set to rise? Doh!

Bitcoin has zero fundamental utility. It is cult that was designed and loaded to make its’ “high priests” rich. To understand how it will trade, forget common sense – focus on what it is, who the players are and what is likely to motivate and influence the price. On that basis Buttcon may be a cynical buy – but be prepared to exit early.

Let’s assume the US Debt crisis is averted. What comes next? A full-on speculative bubble and hype around Artificial Intelligence is underway. How will AI influence trading strategies, or turn markets into gray-goo? Will AI trading prove to be little more than finding new innovative ways to relieve retail investors of their money?

April 2022 will go down in market history as the month it all became obvious.. But what? That the global economy is in need of repair, markets are overly euphoric and consumers can’t consume when they are broke.

Two linked themes this morning – what about the little people? Most mornings I write about market macro and micro themes, but occasionally things happen that may just be a turning point. Two things to think about today: Big Tech and Retail Investors.