UK / US not-a-trade deal is better that nothing
Blains Morning Porridge May 9th 2025 – UK / US [...]
80 years later Europe will finally unite
Trump was right: NATO had become an American Umbrella. Europe needs time to re-establish its own defence capacity – and that requires respect on both sides of the Atlantic to achieve security without further destabilising global peace. These are “interesting” times indeed.
Modelling Trump Tariffs Suggests Resilience But Chaotic Consequences
This morning’s Porridge is given over to what my chum Rob Hillman’s modelling of the Pandemic economy teaches us about the unpredictable consequences of Trump’s Tariffs. Chaotic, but we are more resilient than we might expect. And very likely to backfire on Trump!
Populism and Crisis. The World Wobbles.
Markets may become less frenetic now the initial Trump phase is over – but that doesn’t mean they get more stable. News flow and data will continue to show a world changing swiftly, where crisis stemming from US assets (watch Treasuries like a hawk), remains a high probability.
Reasons to be Cheerful part II – Washington is waking up.
A new wind may be blowing in Washington. Trump has energetically bluffed and blustered his first 100 days, but now the wheels look loose. Time for some sackings and a refocus. Its beginning to happen and may actually prove positive. The place to start has been Ukraine and Defence.
Start Watching the DATA as the reality of 4 years of Trump kicks in…
Macro Economic Data paints an imperfect picture of the US economy – but the numbers are likely to be challenging in coming months. We should pay attention to them, but the underlying resilience of the US economy to disruption may yet surprise us!
Forget Trump – Climate Change has the potential to inflict much more pain
100 days of Trump has distracted us from many big issues – including how his policies have knocked back climate science by decades. Former UK premier Tony Blair has identified massive failures in climate-change and net-zero policies. It’s time to consider how extreme weather will do even more economic damage than trade wars.
Enough about Trump. Worry about the real stuff; Treasuries and Innovation. GalleryEnough about Trump. Worry about the real stuff; Treasuries and Innovation.
Debt, Trump, Political risk, Politics, Global Growth, Taxes, Capitalism, Economy, Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Democracy, Inflation, Sovereign Debt, Government Policy, USA
Enough about Trump. Worry about the real stuff; Treasuries and Innovation.
It’s time to focus back on the real stuff: economic growth and innovation. We need to move past the Trump noise, and get back to opportunities. Which companies offer realistic growth and innovation, and which are hype? The real issue may yet prove to be the US Treasury Market, where doubts are growing.
The US DATA is undeniable – recession this way comes..
The fact the US is almost certain to be plunged into a unresolvable recession by the summer, doesn’t mean Trump will be pressured into recanting his economic heresies. Maga voters look likely to double down on him! Meaning an even deeper problems for US firms trying to retain the illusion of their current inflated valuations.
Bessent rages against the dying of the American Era.
Scott Bessent shocked the World Bank gathering this week with his rambling demands for fealty to an American led financial system. But what was really asking for? A time machine to take America back to the 1950s?
