Blain’s Morning Porridge April 17^th 2025 – Markets are bounded by the society we wish to live in

“My house shall be called a house of prayer, but you are making it a den of thieves.”

Society is a complex notion. It is a collection of rules and guidelines for living and when these are pressured, instability is often the result. Markets are part of modern society and are vulnerable – especially at times of massive change, as is happening now. That doesn’t mean disaster – it means evolution to what will follows.

Inshallah.

Despite the quote this morning; Jesus overturning the money-lenders tables in the Temple 2000 odd years ago, no one who knows me would never describe me as religious or part of the God-squad. Yet, who I am, and how I act, are products of the Christian society I grew up in. This weekend is Easter, the great celebration of Christian faith. Although I have little patience for religious flummery – I will spare a moment to think about Jesus Christ, the social revolutionary. I do have a faith of sorts – faith in the future and faith in people. I have faith in markets as part of society, making us collectively better by efficiently allocating resources. (Gosh.. Economics 101 as religion? How conventional.)

All three of the great monotheistic faiths; Judaism, Christianity, and Islam share similar values, which is hardly surprising as they are twigs from the same branch of a common tree. Moses, Mohammed and Jesus would immediately recognise how much they had in common. Their faith all evolved from the same place – and are variations of the same societal codes that determined how to live, and stress the need for decency, care and charity.

We live in a much bigger but more connected world – and broadly the same rules apply to us all. All religions say much the same things: some basic rules, be nice and be considerate. Human history trends towards bloody and angry because folk try to arbitrage, or place themselves above these rules in pursuit of self-advantage – and I could cite dozens of instances where that is the case today.

Modern religions – like Communism and Libertarianism – fail because they don’t understand society or how individuals think and work. History shows attempts to order society thru autocracy of any form fail due to greed and corruption, and society will not long tolerate those who seek to justify inequality in pursuit of their own ends. One simple human trait is that the moment we set a rule, people will seek ways to break it.

Democracy, (and the recognition of the frailty of individuals), is famously the worst form of government – except for everything else.

In the long-run, society and markets find balance. Economic history – the story of society even more riveting than tales of military prowess and battles lost and won – is a story of constantly evolving societal codes as society advances. How technology will change society, and the challenges it will continue to throw up, is very much part of that long march to a better life for us all. The possibilities excite me. They excite markets because of the opportunities they raise.

There are times when the pressures on society are particularly acute, particularly when an Empire has climbed passed its apogee and is heading into graceful or sudden decline. Such transfers of regional and later global hegemonic power happen with predictable frequency.

It is happening now as the USA evolves from being the Arsenal of Freedom 90 years ago, the Global Policeman of our lifetimes, into a nation that seems to be suffering Paranoia that the rest of the world is ripping it off. That’s a view the American president has sold to his voters, and it’s at the root of the current global uncertainty. Being an economist I think the president is wrong – and have written much about it in recent months.

It’s a form of conflict and the resulting uncertainty will continue to roil immediate markets, but long term I remain a screaming bull!

We will continue to evolve. New technologies will make life more stable and bearable, we will overcome challenges ahead from climate change and population dislocation, yet we will remain a fraxious, exciting, conniving and ambitious mix of societies all competing to do better, and trying to do so without overturning the rules too badly as to cause conflict. (Good luck with that, says The Budda and all the other prophets of society that have sought to guide mankind…)

Listening to the market yesterday, there was a babble of voices clamouring to be heard:

• Some believe there is upside around the corner – citing rising stock prices.
• Others worry about debt loads, policy mistakes and the unsustainability of it all – terrified where the 10-year bond might be headed.
• There is no shortage of very senior talking heads on the TV warning the mistakes that have been made spell economic crisis.
• A very senior banker has quietly raised the cash his bank is holding against a potential liquidity crisis if the world turns over.

On the other hand, with just a few words the US president could trigger a massive jump in markets over this weekend – “We are going to talk to China”.

Or, he may boost markets by instructing his retainers to sign favourable trade deals with the UK and Japan – giving him evidence to show his supporters of deals to be done, and hope to markets.

As always; things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope. Even if markets rally on words, its actions that count. It is likely the globe will remain acutely out of balance in a society where inequality and greed runs rabidly unbounded.

I am sure the next few years are going to remain acutely “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word, but I would not be averse to Jesus or the Prophet returning to remind us all of basic decency and justice, and that the pursuit of riches means little – that our fellow men and women are far more important.

Today is also the anniversary of She-Who-is-Mrs-Blain and I finally tying the knot. We may not be millionaires, and we fret and worry about the kids and their futures, and when we will be able to retire. But we are blessed. We enjoy life and love our lives. What is life if it is not for living well?

Deep-down inside us all.. perhaps “there are more things in heaven or earth than are dreamt of..” and basic human decency.

I apologise this was not a normal Morning Porridge. One day a year of being reflective… back to my usual misery on Tuesday..

Bill Blain

Author Morning Porridge

Founder Windshift Capital

Partner Shard Capital