What will the American mega-stocks be worth tomorrow? What will they be worth when Asian markets are larger, more competitive and more open, and Europe is closed to them? The Age of Trump has catalysed the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. Apple and Telsa provide scenarios on how it all may come about.
Global Trade is not just about governments and tariffs. Its about what individuals want to buy and how businesses set about selling their products. How these micro components of the global economy are responding to the “challenges” of Trump v.2 will determine the future.
When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a politically motivated tax-cutting Big, Beautiful Bill. Not! A Debt Storm is coming. Batten down the hatches.
Japan’s Bond market may prove the dead canary in the coal mine warning of an imminent systemic global bond crisis. Although US stocks have staged a “Terminal Lucidity” recovery – it may prove unsustainable as the shocks start to mount, and Japanese liquidity melts away.
The UK and Europe have signed a framework deal which should prove massively positive for both economies. It resets the UK’s place as a financial and politically sovereign nation close to the heart of Europe. That’s what Brexit always should have been – it’s going to trigger growth because it will boost CONFIDENCE!
Lots of stuff going on this week! Top of the list is how hard-line Republican Hawks in Washington have reset Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Don’t make him angry… We also have the UK doing a deal with Europe. And, Mark Blyth gives a masterclass in how we should think about inflation.
The last 4 months has been exhausting coping with change, uncertainty and chaos – yet markets have emerged basically unchanged. Stocks are flat and bonds around the same. Nothing to worry about? Or… should we remain concerned as the consequences play out?
Boeing is slowly climbing its hill towards recovery. The last few years saw the firm tumble on the back of a host of crises of its own making. It’s coming back together, but the question remains: can it remain relevant without a big capital pool to spend on developing the next generation of aircraft, in the face of new competition?
Sir Keir Starmer has jumped aboard the populist bandwagon, pandering to voters convinced immigration is the UK’s greatest challenge and threat. Silly me… I thought it was the Russians, or jobs, or the economy. The reality is aging nations need workers.
Trump blinked. 42 days after “Liberation Day” China gets a 10% base tariff level, putting it on better trade terms than the EU? It was a ramble of conflicting narratives, but the reality is the US may just have averted a catastrophic trade induced crash – it will likely still experience a stagflationary shock.
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