The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today.

Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.

This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly take centre stage.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

Powell was sacked and then he wasn’t. The market tumbled but swiftly bounced. It was another day of training markets for disruption. The reality is the ongoing shenanigans are undermining confidence in the Fed ahead of what could be a very testing time for the US economy when Trump policies start to bite.

The UK faces a tough choice: a trade deal with the US or re-engagement with Europe. In Trump world these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Trump wants to boast about the trade deals he’s signing. Its time the Sir Keir Starmer got a bit UK First in how we respond. Too many strings could be attached to a US deal.

The weekend’s events in Syria highlight dramatic and swift change at the core of the geopolitical instability that’s defined the last few years. The cost in blood from conflict has been horrendous, but from a market and stability perspective there is now more to be positive about. Russia and Iran’s defeat in Syria could even trigger global recovery!

The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions are great fun, but the reality is 2024 is going to be about Elections, Oil and Energy Prices, Conflict and how China plays these three forces. China will dominate 2024 – for all the wrong reasons.

In bonds there is truth: Apple’s Jumbo $5.5 bln corporate bond deal hints of a firmer market to come. A clear divide between US Recovery and European Slowdown is increasingly apparent – a weaker Euro will further add to European problems.