The Pope has published an Encyclical warning on the risks of an ill-considered rush towards AI. It comes at a time when AI is driving the markets, and AI leaders are whispering in Trump’s ear that regulation will destroy America’s lead. It’s not just the risk we will be turned to grey gloop by AI overlords, but how jobs, the economy, inequality and social equality are at all in play.

Oh dear. Last night’s explanation of the War did not go well. What changed except a more unstable and fractured global economy and rising trade, supply chain and conflict risks? When markets are priced for perfection – what happens when reality intrudes. I see bad things arising.

Suddenly global markets are reeling – waking up to the reality of the unwinnable Iran War. What will a dramatic shift in sentiment mean for stocks, bonds and commodities as stagflation beckons, and Trump finds himself isolated? There is a growing risk of a liquidity shock to global markets.

The outlook for markets remains dire.. no worries! But what chance governments, central banks, the economy and growth enablers suddenly turn up the good news and put it all right again…? Are we over-estimating stagflation and recession?

The risks in Ukraine are escalating as Russia shows the nuclear card – but markets are behaving as if its Russia has been backfooted as the West finally wakes-up to the threat. Russia might have miscalculated some aspects of its strategy, but it would be wrong to think much has changed – yet!