The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change?

2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...

It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have we now reached peak-Trump? Europe is the key – the continent has to wake up to the coming opportunities.

This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?

This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happy retail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.

Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. Rachel Reeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the reality is maybe very different. There is not that much [more than usual] to worry about.

Fascinating times we live in. Democracy is struggling. Nations are caught with crippling budgets, unpayable debt, and gridlocked political systems that mitigate against solutions. Don’t you hanker for the old days, when the king could just lop of some heads to make things happen? That’s one solution for the USA, according to some.

Last week the Axis of Autocracy gathered to watch a spectacular military parade. Here in the West governments are tripping over themselves as politics become ever more polarised and ineffective. How should these factors inform investment decisions?

The UK’s Torygraph Newspaper excelled itself over the weekend, publishing claims the UK is bust and seeking an IMF bailout. Their readership loved it as proof positive the UK is doomed and how terrible the new government is. It undermined the Gilts market, and raised substantial global investor fears over the investibility of the UK. The story was utterly unfounded.

When future economic historians try to figure out the pivotal moment in the Decline and Fail of the American Century, its likely last week will figure in their thinking. Trump’s actions will have profound implications for bond and tech markets – and the time to start building these consequences into portfolios is NOW!