This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happy retail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.

Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. Rachel Reeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the reality is maybe very different. There is not that much [more than usual] to worry about.

Fascinating times we live in. Democracy is struggling. Nations are caught with crippling budgets, unpayable debt, and gridlocked political systems that mitigate against solutions. Don’t you hanker for the old days, when the king could just lop of some heads to make things happen? That’s one solution for the USA, according to some.

Last week the Axis of Autocracy gathered to watch a spectacular military parade. Here in the West governments are tripping over themselves as politics become ever more polarised and ineffective. How should these factors inform investment decisions?

The UK’s Torygraph Newspaper excelled itself over the weekend, publishing claims the UK is bust and seeking an IMF bailout. Their readership loved it as proof positive the UK is doomed and how terrible the new government is. It undermined the Gilts market, and raised substantial global investor fears over the investibility of the UK. The story was utterly unfounded.

When future economic historians try to figure out the pivotal moment in the Decline and Fail of the American Century, its likely last week will figure in their thinking. Trump’s actions will have profound implications for bond and tech markets – and the time to start building these consequences into portfolios is NOW!

Markets are still trading off the speculative boost given them by Trump’s election win. Further upside is vulnerable to correction which could come from anywhere; Fed timing, corporate events, inflation, recession or even Blitzkrieg Politics if political mistakes are made.

One month till the US election – how prepared are markets for what comes next? Who will win? In the short-term the election will change little around fractured US politics and the strength of the economy – long term it may hasten the end of America as global hegemon.

Smart pundits are buying Uranium. While China builds out its nuclear fleet, the US looks set to favour fossil fuels while the UK’s nuclear plans are over-engineered and slow. Future economic leadership will be determined by energy.  It’s a game the West could well lose.

Let the games begin. 2024 is going to be… interesting. Whether its consumer debt, corporate default rates, banking worries or sovereign bonds there is plenty to be pessimistic about. The optimists think it’s going to be Goldilocks – what do they know I don’t?