Markets are still trading off the speculative boost given them by Trump’s election win. Further upside is vulnerable to correction which could come from anywhere; Fed timing, corporate events, inflation, recession or even Blitzkrieg Politics if political mistakes are made.

One month till the US election – how prepared are markets for what comes next? Who will win? In the short-term the election will change little around fractured US politics and the strength of the economy – long term it may hasten the end of America as global hegemon.

Smart pundits are buying Uranium. While China builds out its nuclear fleet, the US looks set to favour fossil fuels while the UK’s nuclear plans are over-engineered and slow. Future economic leadership will be determined by energy.  It’s a game the West could well lose.

Let the games begin. 2024 is going to be… interesting. Whether its consumer debt, corporate default rates, banking worries or sovereign bonds there is plenty to be pessimistic about. The optimists think it’s going to be Goldilocks – what do they know I don’t?

Is it just me that finds Christmas and the Holidays to be overly stressy? They will be over too quick, and we’ll all be back as confused as ever. Here are some thoughts and predictions for 2024. The one thing I guarantee: The World is Changing.

Stocks are looking forward to a double dose of joy from strong tech earnings and the Fed close to end of the tightening phase, but these may be Potemkin Markets.. foundations in the sand and little behind the façade… says the grumpy bond trader…

Monday is the May Day Holiday, but the weather is pants and no one has any money anyway… There isn’t much on the horizon that is clear – hunker down for more months of uncertainty.

Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.

Post-pandemic markets are challenging! We’re juggling multiple crises from inflation shocks, market wobbles and policy normalisation. Markets today are adjusting to the last 14 years of extraordinary monetary policy which have distorted the basis of markets and economic behaviours. Addressing them will be a long-term market challenge.