Markets are struggling with just how much Trump’s tariffs might derail global trade and growth. In normal times the solution would be patient negotiation to avoid destructive trade wars. These are not normal times – we are dealing with America First MAGA zealots.

Trump’s efforts to broker a Ukraine peace with Russia over the heads of Europe and Ukraine was never anything but posturing. Europe should step up and take control – it’s a risk strategy, but would be the making of Europe. Rearmament could give Europe the economic boost and purpose it requires, and discourage further conflict.

The German elections highlight the dangers of coalition politics – swimming in a sea of treacle to agree policy choices as the likelihood of bad compromises rises. Even as Trump and Ukraine roil and destabilises the European Union, Germany is set for the distinct possibility nothing much changes. It is not strong and stable leadership at a time when it is desperately needed.

Month 1 of Trump V2 has been…. “interesting”. The playbook is not to win friends, but to shock former allies into compliance with Trump’s America First agenda. The results may not be what Trump and his minions expect. There will be push back. New Alliances and Trade patterns will form - with or without America.

The UK is in danger of becoming the unloved Piggy-in-the-Middle in terms of new global trade and geopolitical alliances. While China and the US place the pieces on the board, the value of Airstrip 1 is unclear. We have chosen where we now lie. We have chosen badly.

Everyone will be watching today’s unfolding internet outage – a dress rehearsal for the opening salvo of the next war? Meanwhile the West is unravelling because of populism – which is fuelled by inequality. No Sh*t Sherlock award to myself for spotting it.

The shenanigans around the second round of French voting has achieved a messy but acceptable stalemate for Macron. All he has to do now is figure out how to make the essentially ungovernable economy work without breaking French bonds, the Euro and Europe while keeping out Le Pen in 2027! Simples…  

Emperor Xi’s brief trip to Europe has apparently achieved little – but he’s made clear China is open to dealing with Europe – on its terms. He can wait: the global economy is increasingly transactional and the US / Yoorp relationship is under stress. If China needs to flex some muscles and break things to get the message across – they will.

Europe will face massive difficulties rejigging NATO for a post US era. It will be vulnerable to Russian disinformation while facing acute production, labour and cooperation instabilities. But if it could be done…..

Nations succeed because they are ruthless in pursuit of their goals; good and bad. Western politicians have decided the big issue is illegal migration – making it conditional and a priority in front of the really important challenges around growth, stability, geopolitics and avoiding conflict. Its Political Failure of the Worst Kind.