Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive, leading to competitive frictions!

Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.

Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategic compression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to play out as anyone predicts.

Something different for Morning Porridge Readers this morning, a guest post from my chum David Murrin.

Ukraine has demonstrated massive changes in how future wars will be fought. Yet, the military bureaucracies of Western Nations are mired in the procurement-treacle of 80 years of peacetime spending. It’s time for radical overhaul, and an explosion of private-funding to build a stronger Western economy through aggressive deterrence. 

What’s not to like about Panto? Saxo Bank’s excellent Outrageous Predictions for 2026 are out.. Lets dig into why Sir Keir Starmer might consider rejoining Europe to peeve Nigel Farage, how China will dominate trade through Tech and a gold-linked Yuan, and why SpaceX is unlikely to be the first $1 trillion IPO.

Margaret Thatcher would have celebrated her 100th Birthday yesterday. She is widely considered the defining British politician of the post-war era. But it was a very different time, and we should not blind ourselves to the long-term consequences of Thatcherism. Decisions made over 35 years ago affect Britain today, and we exist in a very much less friendly and uncertain world.

Gold has been an absolute portfolio star this year. It’s ridden the markets rising fears on sovereign debt, inflation and political incompetency. What will drive it back down? It seems unlikely fears will lessen, especially if predictions of rising instability and stagflation prove founded.

Political stresses are undermining the West. While Europe bickers and America reinvents itself, the Asian century has begun. Yet, Modi and Xi embracing in Tianjin does not herald a new China-India axis, but that India has moved firmly into the new Asia camp. How these two nations compete will be the key to 21st Century investment opportunities.

Everyone knows Europe is finished. Over-regulation, bureaucracy, a demographic bust, dusty old industries and the prospect of slow lingering decline.. Nonsense. The Sun may shortly rise on new prospects and growth as geopolitics and new trade develops. Might be time for the great rotation back across The Pond.