The amount of nonsense being written about the imminent collapse of the UK Gilts Market defies logic and experience. The numbers show demand for Gilts remains solid – but the growing, and often invented negativity over rising Lond-End yields threatens confidence in the UK’s bond market. Yield curves are steepening around the globe!  

You might think China planned it this way. As it challenges the USA as global hegemon, there is panic across the West as Western Long Bond Yields hit record levels. It smells like crisis – In Bond Yields there is Truth – but you have to know how to read the market. Long bonds are weak because of inflation. Be concerned, but not fearful. Buy the short-end – cuts are coming!

The Israeli strike on Iran has roiled markets. Not unexpected, but the consequences could have been much worse if the Israelis had used low-yield Tactical Nuclear Bunker Busters.

Yesterday, the UK unveiled its long-awaited Strategic Defence Review. The implications for markets, both for Bonds and Equity, and the cohesion of the West are massive. The SDR represents an opportunity and challenge.

Boeing is slowly climbing its hill towards recovery. The last few years saw the firm tumble on the back of a host of crises of its own making. It’s coming back together, but the question remains: can it remain relevant without a big capital pool to spend on developing the next generation of aircraft, in the face of new competition?

Trump was right: NATO had become an American Umbrella. Europe needs time to re-establish its own defence capacity – and that requires respect on both sides of the Atlantic to achieve security without further destabilising global peace. These are “interesting” times indeed.

A new wind may be blowing in Washington. Trump has energetically bluffed and blustered his first 100 days, but now the wheels look loose. Time for some sackings and a refocus. Its beginning to happen and may actually prove positive. The place to start has been Ukraine and Defence.

Up, down, shake it all about. Current markets are driven by short-term rumour and sigh about what Trump might do or say next on tariffs. However, the real threats are longer-term – how the global economy is increasingly vulnerable not just to trade and economics, but also the growing weakness and unravelling of US military might. The implications for global security could change everything.

The UK government intends to raise spending on defence by nearly 0.2% of GDP. Give me a break! The costs of trying to fight war on the cheap will be far higher than the costs of maintaining the Peace by being properly prepared to fight a war. To keep the peace means being prepared to fight – and fight hard. Such costs may bring substantial economic benefits.

The German elections highlight the dangers of coalition politics – swimming in a sea of treacle to agree policy choices as the likelihood of bad compromises rises. Even as Trump and Ukraine roil and destabilises the European Union, Germany is set for the distinct possibility nothing much changes. It is not strong and stable leadership at a time when it is desperately needed.