There are times when you have to laugh at the nonsense of it all. From a delusional, fantastical market to a blithering, blathering President, what’s not to like about these summer markets…? Er, how about how some great look back earnings hide the coming reality?

Donald Trump never disappoints in terms of “interesting”. MAGA/Trump might unravel, and Trump spontaneously combust, due to Epstein  – but conflict was what we knew Trump would bring to the table. The real risk to markets is probably the US Consumer. They are not as resilient as the rosy earnings season thinks.

Three risks for markets to fathom this morning: What Tesla the Meme-stock means for the Mag7, how AI risks are multiplying, and what doing a course on AI revealed about its’ true purpose.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

When markets are hitting record highs is the time to be cautious, and ask why? US Stocks and Bonds are at record levels, despite the current uncertainties and policy instability. What’s driving it is a mix of themes, including market evolution. But also a market potentially complacent about approaching threats.

The last 6 months has been….. interesting. The world has been shaken, stirred, and left confused, uncertain and destablised. Fantastic. Big shocks create massive opportunities. The issue for markets is understanding why, where and what they are!

Global Trade is not just about governments and tariffs. Its about what individuals want to buy and how businesses set about selling their products. How these micro components of the global economy are responding to the “challenges” of Trump v.2 will determine the future.

When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a politically motivated tax-cutting Big, Beautiful Bill. Not!  A Debt Storm is coming. Batten down the hatches.

The last 4 months has been exhausting coping with change, uncertainty and chaos – yet markets have emerged basically unchanged. Stocks are flat and bonds around the same. Nothing to worry about? Or… should we remain concerned as the consequences play out?

The fact the US is almost certain to be plunged into a unresolvable recession by the summer, doesn’t mean Trump will be pressured into recanting his economic heresies. Maga voters look likely to double down on him! Meaning an even deeper problems for US firms trying to retain the illusion of their current inflated valuations.