This will be the last FOMC as we knew them. From here on, a politicised Fed will be dancing to the President’s tune. That may be a good thing – but probably not. It may prove great news for markets, but a route to economic stagnation. It may also trigger a correction.

Huh! Some Nervous Nellies think the US stock market is rallying hard on thin air. Nonsense. What’s not to like about a big Fed Ease, a strong economy, and empowered companies! Nothing to worry about in terms of inflation or trade – ignore the doomsters trying to undermine confidence in the President and America. Buy, buy, and buy…

Last week the Axis of Autocracy gathered to watch a spectacular military parade. Here in the West governments are tripping over themselves as politics become ever more polarised and ineffective. How should these factors inform investment decisions?

So much to worry about. Stop. Why bother? What’s not to like about short-term markets. Nvidia is selling more and more and more chips, SpaceX half-circumnavigated the planet, and US Treasuries care not a jot about Fed Independence. Give me another puff of whatever these guys are smoking!

There are times when you have to laugh at the nonsense of it all. From a delusional, fantastical market to a blithering, blathering President, what’s not to like about these summer markets…? Er, how about how some great look back earnings hide the coming reality?

Donald Trump never disappoints in terms of “interesting”. MAGA/Trump might unravel, and Trump spontaneously combust, due to Epstein  – but conflict was what we knew Trump would bring to the table. The real risk to markets is probably the US Consumer. They are not as resilient as the rosy earnings season thinks.

Three risks for markets to fathom this morning: What Tesla the Meme-stock means for the Mag7, how AI risks are multiplying, and what doing a course on AI revealed about its’ true purpose.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

When markets are hitting record highs is the time to be cautious, and ask why? US Stocks and Bonds are at record levels, despite the current uncertainties and policy instability. What’s driving it is a mix of themes, including market evolution. But also a market potentially complacent about approaching threats.

The last 6 months has been….. interesting. The world has been shaken, stirred, and left confused, uncertain and destablised. Fantastic. Big shocks create massive opportunities. The issue for markets is understanding why, where and what they are!