Pretty much as was expected Donald Trump has declared his war almost over. Its not. It has destabilised the global economy. What might be roiled in its wake? One area to watch is how a liquidity default-storm in Private Credit could infect global bond and equity markets, causing a global market crisis.

The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on. What can possibly go wrong…..?

This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?

Markets have opened strongly in 2026 and seem remarkably sanguine towards rising geopolitical instability and shocks. They’re buying a rosy outlook of rising profits, lower rates and costs, and are blithely unconcerned by the risks of destabilisation from conflict or competition.

The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypse into a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The higher they climb, the further there is to fall…

We’ve seen all the signs of crisis to come. Exuberant markets priced for perfection, valuations at mindboggling levels, AI spending trillions to make millions. Yet Gold, the universal risk-off asset just hit $4000. Wake up, smell the coffee…. While you still can..

It’s a mighty confusing market out there. Is the US headed for recession or boom? Is the AI bubble going to inflate or pop? Is the IMF about to be buried in bail-out requests? How do you follow the narrative, trade and invest into the news flow. Or is it time for a new approach – follow the money, less the story.

October is coming. It is the scariest month for markets. And there is much to be scared about in Q4; unsustainable narratives driving bubbles, inflation and stagflationary threats, political uncertainty, and a market priced for perfection. I yell “correction”, but in the dying phases of a euphoric market – no one can hear you scream!