The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypse into a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The higher they climb, the further there is to fall…

We’ve seen all the signs of crisis to come. Exuberant markets priced for perfection, valuations at mindboggling levels, AI spending trillions to make millions. Yet Gold, the universal risk-off asset just hit $4000. Wake up, smell the coffee…. While you still can..

It’s a mighty confusing market out there. Is the US headed for recession or boom? Is the AI bubble going to inflate or pop? Is the IMF about to be buried in bail-out requests? How do you follow the narrative, trade and invest into the news flow. Or is it time for a new approach – follow the money, less the story.

October is coming. It is the scariest month for markets. And there is much to be scared about in Q4; unsustainable narratives driving bubbles, inflation and stagflationary threats, political uncertainty, and a market priced for perfection. I yell “correction”, but in the dying phases of a euphoric market – no one can hear you scream!

This will be the last FOMC as we knew them. From here on, a politicised Fed will be dancing to the President’s tune. That may be a good thing – but probably not. It may prove great news for markets, but a route to economic stagnation. It may also trigger a correction.

Huh! Some Nervous Nellies think the US stock market is rallying hard on thin air. Nonsense. What’s not to like about a big Fed Ease, a strong economy, and empowered companies! Nothing to worry about in terms of inflation or trade – ignore the doomsters trying to undermine confidence in the President and America. Buy, buy, and buy…

Last week the Axis of Autocracy gathered to watch a spectacular military parade. Here in the West governments are tripping over themselves as politics become ever more polarised and ineffective. How should these factors inform investment decisions?

So much to worry about. Stop. Why bother? What’s not to like about short-term markets. Nvidia is selling more and more and more chips, SpaceX half-circumnavigated the planet, and US Treasuries care not a jot about Fed Independence. Give me another puff of whatever these guys are smoking!