Global Trade is not just about governments and tariffs. Its about what individuals want to buy and how businesses set about selling their products. How these micro components of the global economy are responding to the “challenges” of Trump v.2 will determine the future.

When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a politically motivated tax-cutting Big, Beautiful Bill. Not!  A Debt Storm is coming. Batten down the hatches.

The last 4 months has been exhausting coping with change, uncertainty and chaos – yet markets have emerged basically unchanged. Stocks are flat and bonds around the same. Nothing to worry about? Or… should we remain concerned as the consequences play out?

The fact the US is almost certain to be plunged into a unresolvable recession by the summer, doesn’t mean Trump will be pressured into recanting his economic heresies. Maga voters look likely to double down on him! Meaning an even deeper problems for US firms trying to retain the illusion of their current inflated valuations.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 24th April 2025 – Private Assets, Contagion [...]

The narrative in US markets grows more improbable every day. Did Trump not threaten to sack Powell last week? And aren’t massive tariffs on China a guarantee of US victory? Apparently, that was just a dream sequence, and Bobby Ewing is about to step out the shower. Confused? You will be. Welcome to Trump – The Soap.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has the most difficult job in the world. How do you explain to a cabinet of financial imbeciles the USA is on course for a stock market crash, recession, inflation and a possible collapse in the US Treasury Market? It’s high risk - Trump is a “shoot-the-messenger” kind of guy.

Nothing beats teaching the next generation of financiers. I had that honour yesterday at Heriot-Watt’s Edinburgh Business School Yesterday where we discussed Markets, Politics and Economics. There were some great questions from my post-grad students – and one: “Is this a correction and should we buy the dip”, is good example of how much has really changed. The answer is – No.

The market is probably overstressing on Trump – but he does make a lot of noise. A bigger danger may be the broader signals and the future of the USA as economic hegemon. At a time when the US Debt clock is spinning so fast you can’t read the numbers, could the USA withstand a Dollar, Treasury and Political Competency Crisis? Let me explain by taking you to the top of a very steep mountain.

Howls of pain as US markets sink through 200 day moving averages and into correction phase! It’s increasingly clear Trump Version 2.1 still contains significant bugs and 404 errors. Sadly, we can’t simply reboot the OS and hope it starts ups again. Markets will just have to adjust to the new Trump reality.. and it’s likely to hurt. A lot.