The weekend weather and more rain on the way may be a precursor to real economic consequences approaching. The sustained rise in mean adjusted P/E ratios is likely a factor of distortion – will the market notice? And the UK election. Yawn... What will Rishi say next?
The US economy looks strong, robust and resilient. Investors are pouring billions into stock trackers believing it’s all rosy upside ahead. Under the surface there is enormous stress as consumers, corporates, banks and the government struggle with debt and its consequences. If something snaps….
The UK’s snap General Election will be one of the most significant on record. At stake is restoring the UK's reputation for political competency. It will be required to address the massive challenge on the economic horizon: the threat of galloping wage demands and stagflation while trying to repair Broken Britain.
The markets expect Nvidia will bat it out the park… Unlimited joy and upside awaits! Is the pursuit of AI “maybe’s” overdone? There are plenty of real, positive and profitable investments out there – without the disappointment risk of having backed yet another hollow Tech pipedream.
Markets act like rate cuts are already done. Froth rules. The reality is a mis-aligned global economy struggling with multiple consequences from the last 15 years. The real economy is about supply, and China is critical to that argument.
As the Dow pokes 40K, markets remain exuberantly frothy! Labour produces a list of 6 priorities designed to reassure voters they aren’t rampaging social-communist revolutionaries intent on overturning everything, (Keir Starmer? really?) demonstrating instead their intent to be better Tories than the Tories. Disappointing. They missed the critical issue, Housing, from their list.
Hamble Village won the first battle yesterday – Hampshire County Council turned down an application by Persimmon (via Cemex) to dig a destructive quarry right in the heart of our village. It would cause massive health and economic damage while raising flood risk. Persimmon will appeal – so we are preparing for war.
Markets fear instability above all else. Financial crashes happen. Spectacular gains are followed by dramatic losses. Market foundations are strong, based on the truth of bond markets. What might happen if investors lose their confidence in bonds?
Politics and Corporate Greed are close bedfellows. This week’s market will be driven by the US inflation number and what it means for rate cut timing, but the costs of inflation fall hardest upon the poor. Political populism is driven by inequality and corporate greed, and underlies market instability.
Lots of unhappy creatives this morning as Apple threatens to replace them all with iPads – after crushing their creative souls completely. Is it Apple’s Ratners Moment, or another sign of a mature company that’s lost touch with its community, and is badly in need of reinvigoration?
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