Labour got a landslide, but did not win the UK election – the Tories lost it. The result is not what it appears to be…. The real winner was Reform, and that could have massive future consequences for Markets and the UK economy.
The UK election will contain few surprises but leaves the new government massive problems to solve. Biden’s inevitable withdrawal from the US Presidential race adds new uncertainty to the political mix – and may obscure some the critical economic issues.
Beryl is the fastest, strongest and earliest hurricane to hit the Caribbean. The price of the humble potato will see substantial inflation as miserable harvests come in. What do these two apparently unconnected events tell us about inflation and risk?
At a time when markets crave stability and uncertainty, the political picture looks increasingly messy. No problem. These things have a habit of resolving themselves faster than we expect. Bear my mantra in mind: “Markets are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope.”
The market is distracted by the up, down, shake it all about noise in Tech. Watch banks! The US Fed passed all 31 major US Banks in its annual bank stress test. I can’t think of anything that could scare me more…
We live in a incurious financial age. Today’s financial generation has some very distorted notions of how markets work. You either go with their flow… or take the red pill, read copiously and figure it all out for yourself.
The UK election is the most important in decades, but the debate on policy and the future is trapped in the minutiae of the financial orthodoxy of costed and funded policy tweaks. The malign ghost of Liz Truss and the Trusterf*ck haunts markets like a bad smell. It must be exorcised!
Watch the bond markets! In bonds there is truth. The current political ructions across Europe highlight the fragility of Europe’s cobbled together bond markets. If they break, the outlook for markets will be… interesting (and not in a good way.)
Blain’s Morning Porridge June 14th 2024: Musk Promises us Replicants! [...]
Next week I will be either stuck in the queues at Heathrow, or sailing round Greece. Time to unwind and think about the state of the World. Or… maybe not ruin my break by scaring myself! Some thoughts on Global Macro.
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