Financial Commentary for Smart People

About Bill Blain

ill Blain is a published author on financial markets, contributor and editor of the Morning Porridge. He is a well-known market commentor, and a practicing investment banker in the alternative private debt and equity sector. His day job combines his role as Strategist for Shard Capital, the leading investment management firm, and heading the firm’s Alternatives Group – financing Private debt and equity deals, and direct lending transactions. His clients include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, insurance and pension managers, credit funds and family offices.

Kamala Harris spells Volatility, The CrowdStrike Event changes Tech, and Rachel Reeves on the Beeb.

So much to write about this morning…. Just some of the questions are: How might Kamala Harris and a closer US election change the economic and market calculus? What does the Crowdstrike omnishambles on Friday tell us about the uncertain foundations of global tech and its’ resilience to instabilities? What did we learn about the UK’s economic prospects from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Sunday Morning’s BBC interview?

Kamala Harris spells Volatility, The CrowdStrike Event changes Tech, and Rachel Reeves on the Beeb.2024-07-22T10:17:54+01:00

Outage, Populism, Revolt and Economic Consequences

Everyone will be watching today’s unfolding internet outage – a dress rehearsal for the opening salvo of the next war? Meanwhile the West is unravelling because of populism – which is fuelled by inequality. No Sh*t Sherlock award to myself for spotting it.

Outage, Populism, Revolt and Economic Consequences2024-07-19T09:24:43+01:00

Growth Tech or Small Stocks? Beware short-term moves, but Big Tech has changed.

The investment options are changing – is it time to “rotate” into a broad-based economic recovery around underpriced small stocks by selling over-priced Tech? Or is something more fundamental at play in Big Tech?

Growth Tech or Small Stocks? Beware short-term moves, but Big Tech has changed.2024-07-17T08:42:10+01:00

The Court of Trump – Players and Where Goes the Dollar?

Trump has chosen his VP – JD Vance is an interesting choice. What does it mean for markets? Will we see a return to a new political stability, or is it confirmation it’s time to think long and hard as the global economy de-dollarises?

The Court of Trump – Players and Where Goes the Dollar?2024-07-16T08:19:55+01:00

Trump, Rising Instability, Uncertainy and What Next for Rates?

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump may catalyse global players to walk away from the apparent instability and uncertainty this US election looks to be leading to. Volatility, distrust and division may well multiply.

Trump, Rising Instability, Uncertainy and What Next for Rates?2026-04-17T10:35:42+01:00

The Future is About Energy. The West is Losing.

Smart pundits are buying Uranium. While China builds out its nuclear fleet, the US looks set to favour fossil fuels while the UK’s nuclear plans are over-engineered and slow. Future economic leadership will be determined by energy.  It’s a game the West could well lose.

The Future is About Energy. The West is Losing.2024-07-12T07:38:25+01:00

Alternatives: Office Space is a market to watch.

Markets are watching Commercial Real Estate, nervous the sector may implode and create a repeat of the 2008 repeat financial crisis. Smarter investors see weak property markets as opportunity – and are looking for the right assets.

Alternatives: Office Space is a market to watch.2024-07-11T08:16:43+01:00

An Open Letter to Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer et al: “Be Brave, Be Radical, And Think Outside the Box on Housing”

At the core of the UK’s many economic problems the new government must address is the unaffordability of housing for the bulk of UK workers. Yet the government’s new plan to make it easier to build new executive rabbit hutches on greenfield sites does not address the crying need for 2 bedroom flats in inner cities to boost growth and prosperity.

An Open Letter to Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer et al: “Be Brave, Be Radical, And Think Outside the Box on Housing”2024-07-10T08:37:23+01:00

Just how overblown are global markets, and how much more volatile might they become?

Markets seem unstoppable – but history is about mean reversions; usually through a deep correction or damaging crash. Storm clouds are on the horizon as the US election presages a period of inclement uncertain conditions. The next 4 years will be “interesting”, but let’s get through the next 4 potentially volatile months first. 

Just how overblown are global markets, and how much more volatile might they become?2024-07-09T08:24:52+01:00

De Mal En Pis in France, and not much better elsewhere…

The shenanigans around the second round of French voting has achieved a messy but acceptable stalemate for Macron. All he has to do now is figure out how to make the essentially ungovernable economy work without breaking French bonds, the Euro and Europe while keeping out Le Pen in 2027! Simples…  

De Mal En Pis in France, and not much better elsewhere…2024-07-08T07:07:42+01:00

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The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.

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