Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.
AI has become the markets new, new thang/bubble as investors pile into the new, new narrative forgetting the fundamental rules of investment are about generating dull, boring, predictable returns which look frothy in hot stocks, negative yields in bonds, thus positive returns from real assets stand out!
Bitcoin’s recent gains are about as relevant as Liz Truss. But banks, earnings, inflation, rates and investment remain critical. Now shadow banking investment is under threat – which isn’t going to help.
Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.
US Mid-Terms will dominate the news this week. Gridlocked US politics might be good in terms of zero legislative surprises, but polarisation will punish stocks and diminish the US over the long-term.
Not an insightful Porridge this morning, but let me tell you a story about lessons learnt on holiday and what’s likely to dominate the news flow in August ahead of the September market!
Boris in his bunker is a great example of delusion. Eventually those who do not know themselves get sniffed out. Its happening in markets - speculation is dead. Common sense is back.
Netflix just experienced its’ judder moment – and it is shaking markets. Overnight the streamer became a completely different investment proposition, even though we’ve been warning it was inevitable. There are lessons to be learnt across the equity market.
There is general sense “something wicked this way comes” towards current priced for perfection markets, but trying to define the exact N0-see-um likely to trigger a market correction or meltdown is a notoriously pointless game. However, there are plenty of ways to prepare for whatever comes next….
Seven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation, distortion, recovery, leverage, tech vs reality, exuberance, and value.
