Up, down, shake it all about. Current markets are driven by short-term rumour and sigh about what Trump might do or say next on tariffs. However, the real threats are longer-term – how the global economy is increasingly vulnerable not just to trade and economics, but also the growing weakness and unravelling of US military might. The implications for global security could change everything.

When future economic historians try to figure out the pivotal moment in the Decline and Fail of the American Century, its likely last week will figure in their thinking. Trump’s actions will have profound implications for bond and tech markets – and the time to start building these consequences into portfolios is NOW!

Month 1 of Trump V2 has been…. “interesting”. The playbook is not to win friends, but to shock former allies into compliance with Trump’s America First agenda. The results may not be what Trump and his minions expect. There will be push back. New Alliances and Trade patterns will form - with or without America.

Trump and Putin will agree Peace in Ukraine. The USA will walk away, leaving Europe to deal with the consequences of an unbeaten Russia. A new cold war will descend. That could provide the spark for a European rebirth around rearmament and a new unity of purpose, or instability as Russia seeks to pick off weak nations.

Europe is getting “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. The market to watch will be European Bonds – French OATs may just be the first to wobble. As the crisis unfolds (and it will) there may be opportunities to arbitrage the actions of the ECB to stem any crisis – watch this space.

Today is Halloween, when the lines between this world and others, the past and future, alternative timelines and other realities, cross and oft merge into each other.. at least according to Celtic legend. This morning it just so happens a Morning Porridge from October 2026 has crossed the divide and snuck into my inbox….

Europe is waking up to the reality of conflict, acutely aware of the need to defend itself, to invest and produce weapon systems to deter aggression in what is a vastly changed geopolitical landscape. With the right approach it may even become a driver of growth across the European economy.

Mario Draghi saved Europe in 2012. Yesterday he unveiled a new plan long on words and familiar ideas. Europe is aware it is approaching economic crisis – but prescribes the same old solution of Closer Union. It’s time for Europe to so something radical or become irrelevant.

Plus – UK win stage 1 of the America’s Cup.

The best way to honour them is to ensure we never have to do it again.

Emperor Xi’s brief trip to Europe has apparently achieved little – but he’s made clear China is open to dealing with Europe – on its terms. He can wait: the global economy is increasingly transactional and the US / Yoorp relationship is under stress. If China needs to flex some muscles and break things to get the message across – they will.