The Daily Morning Porridge - Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge Greensill Markets

Lochaber No More

Everyone thinks current market volatility is due to the bond market acting like a bully. When it lashes out the market sells off in fright. Volatility is elevated and everyone is flustered about bursting bubbles

Bill Blain
2-03-2021

Financial Crisis Blain’s Morning Porridge Markets Tech

Don’t Fight The Fed?

There is an old market rule – don’t fight the Fed. Jay Powell has been crystal clear: rates are staying lower for longer. But the ongoing sell-off in Treasuries, and rising global bond yields, paints an interesting story of a market unconvinced rates can be held down

Bill Blain
26-02-2021

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

Policy Risks Rise!

No surprises from Fed-Head Jay Powell yesterday – no matter how much we fear inflation or recovery pushing rates higher, he reassured us by saying what the market wanted to hear: the US economy remains “a long way from our employment and inflation goals, it is likely to take some time for substantial progress to be achieved.”

Bill Blain
24-02-2021

Blain’s Morning Porridge France Markets

Near and Far, Why to Buy!

Interesting markets as tech wobbles on the perceived inflation threat while bond yields continue to edge upwards. In our regular virtual-office Monday huddle we debated whether the inflation threat is real, immediate or likely to be delayed

Bill Blain
23-02-2021

Boating Blain’s Morning Porridge Bonds Brexit Politics

UK Political Risk

Congratulations to Italy’s Team Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli winning the sailing Prada Cup on Sunday morning to knock the UK out of this year’s America’s Cup.

Bill Blain
22-02-2021

Tech Blain’s Morning Porridge Retail Investors

Big Tech & Little Retail

Two linked themes this morning – what about the little people? Most mornings I write about market macro and micro themes, but occasionally things happen that may just be a turning point. Two things to think about today: Big Tech and Retail Investors.

Bill Blain
19-02-2021

Economy Blain’s Morning Porridge Investing Markets

Act Big, Think Careful

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Feb 17 2020 – Act Big, Think Careful “The secret of…

Bill Blain
17-02-2021

Markets Coal Mining Financial Assets Humour Investing

Party On!

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Feb 16th 2020 – Party On! Don’t get angry, read my…

Bill Blain
16-02-2021

Greenwashing the ugly truth about Oceans
April 9, 2021
Seaspiracy is a shocking, flawed, yet critical film. It should set the market thinking about what sustainability really means, addressing how we skirt the real issues on climate change and environmental degredation. It should provide a much-needed kick up the a**e to box-ticking ESG investment stupidity.Read More »
Buy, Eat, Buy, Sleep, Repeat?
April 8, 2021
Markets are priced for perfection in a very imperfect world. As stocks hit new highs, are the bulls or bears correct? Politics are likely to be the major influence on where we go next, but lurking around the next corner might just be inflation.Read More »
What next, if anything, for Credit Suisse?
April 7, 2021
Markets were shaken but unstirred by the collapse of Greensill and the Archegos unwind trades. Credit Suisse is the ultimate loser of the two scandals – reputationally damaged and holed below the water line. The bank is paying the price of years of flawed management, poor risk awareness. and its self-belief it was still a Tier 1 global player. Its’ …Read More »
Markets Rally, but what about COVID?
April 6, 2021
Markets look set to rally strongly into Q2, but are they over-exuberant? The rise in deaths and new strains in Brazil hints the Covid war isn’t won yet, there are rising political risks in Europe, and widening wealth inequality is apparent everywhere. Just how solid are our expectations of stability, renewed global travel and recovery if Covid is here for …Read More »
Things Can Only Get ?
April 1, 2021
Q1 was “interesting”. More financial madness in 3 months than I’ve seen in 35 years, but at least it was fun. How much more sober and boring might the market become? Deliveroo’s botched IPO suggests Investors ain’t as stupid as we think.Read More »