Markets tend towards complacency – especially while there is lots of “stuff” going on… The current noise, much of it Trump generated, is hiding lessons and danger points! How long will markets keep up their positive vibe, blithely ignoring just how much the foundations of the global economy are shifting?

It’s going to take some while for markets to figure out the consequences and implications of DeepSeek on the AI narrative, including how much false value has been factored into US stocks in particular. What will be the next no see-um remains the eternal question for markets!

The Trump Presidency is not short of surprises. It will generate all kinds of consequences. The first is we’re approaching Peak-Musk. Expect to see the battle between Musk and Sam Altman of OpenAI get brutal. That Trump is transactional is no surprise, but how will supporters consider his meme-coin monetisation of power?

Politics was an overarching theme in 2024 – and, regrettably, will remain so in 2025 as global investors figure out likely policy action by central banks and the growth outlook for 2025. “This time it’s different” (TTID) and FOMO remain the most malign forces acting on asset prices, but is a new full blown European Sov Debt Crisis also on the cards?

 Who would possibly want to be a billionaire? Hated by the mob, a victim of evil governments holding you back with tax threats while denying your basic human rights – like a platinum gold bank account! Give me poverty anytime…

Valuations in the USA look insane. Surely stock prices must be a bubble? Maybe. Maybe not – the USA has created a self-driving technology machine, a conveyor belt of tech innovation that’s set to continue delivering value and corporate profits. To understand it – ditch traditional thinking about economies.

This is not just about recession or tech stock valuations – it’s a wider everything, including the kitchen-sink, confidence slough of market instability and uncertainty that’l hurt. Next few days might get interesting… Move along now… nothing to see here…

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 14th 2024: Musk Promises us Replicants! [...]

The markets expect Nvidia will bat it out the park… Unlimited joy and upside awaits! Is the pursuit of AI “maybe’s” overdone? There are plenty of real, positive and profitable investments out there – without the disappointment risk of having backed yet another hollow Tech pipedream.

Lots of unhappy creatives this morning as Apple threatens to replace them all with iPads – after crushing their creative souls completely. Is it Apple’s Ratners Moment, or another sign of a mature company that’s lost touch with its community, and is badly in need of reinvigoration?