Headlines about a deepening stock sell off, the rising “fear” gauge, and unsustainable valuations, are dominating the news flow. Relax. End of the world market crashes happen all the time. Sit back and enjoy the show. Get your buying boots ready.
This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly take centre stage.
The AI Bubble floats on a wave of Confidence – confidence the global economy needs it, the USA will lead it, the hyperscalers and AI firms can afford it, energy is not an issues, and competition from China, tech evolution and quantum are not future problems. All the market sees is opportunity. We've been here before.
What if we are completely wrong about AI? A revolution in how tech is being innovated across the economy is clearly happening – but what if we’ve got the winners and losers wrong? What if we’ve misjudged how AI will evolve as companies and individuals innovate AI solutions for themselves, seeking to preserve their data sovereignty and control of their systems?
Sir Tim Berner-Lee’s autobiography, “This Is For Everyone” is a delight. In a world that is increasingly riven and polarised - largely through the deliberate misuse of the tools his web protocols enabled - his calls for a polite reset will likely fall on deaf ears… There is simply too much money to be made monetising the passions and addictions that drive social media – which is why we ultimately may need to regulate Big Tech and the Web.
So much to worry about. Stop. Why bother? What’s not to like about short-term markets. Nvidia is selling more and more and more chips, SpaceX half-circumnavigated the planet, and US Treasuries care not a jot about Fed Independence. Give me another puff of whatever these guys are smoking!
Three risks for markets to fathom this morning: What Tesla the Meme-stock means for the Mag7, how AI risks are multiplying, and what doing a course on AI revealed about its’ true purpose.
The AI revolution is exceedingly expensive. It’s become a matter of who can chuck the most amount of money at it. But that’s forgetting it’s still evolving and there is little to stop it moving in new directions.
Plus, The Morning Porridge experiments with AI generated graphs!
What will the American mega-stocks be worth tomorrow? What will they be worth when Asian markets are larger, more competitive and more open, and Europe is closed to them? The Age of Trump has catalysed the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. Apple and Telsa provide scenarios on how it all may come about.
Markets tend towards complacency – especially while there is lots of “stuff” going on… The current noise, much of it Trump generated, is hiding lessons and danger points! How long will markets keep up their positive vibe, blithely ignoring just how much the foundations of the global economy are shifting?












