Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it.

Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, or too stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.  

Yet again I was wrong and overly bearish. Markets survived October with barely a shrug. Everything is apparently fine and dandy.. nothing to worry about? Complacency and belief abound. We have been here before…. And what does Rugby tell us about markets?

Chaos occurs when events break out their usual bounds, and it feels like markets are skirting on the edge! Relax. It’s normal in periods of acute change – as are happening now. The Game of Markets across long, medium and short-term horizons is constantly changing – I guess that’s what makes them interesting!

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

What’s not to like about markets which keep going up? Lots of participants are increasingly certain the current upside momentum is unstoppable. Some of us suffer from the problem of thinking too much and wondering if its sustainable. Being a bear can feel very lonely.

What if we are completely wrong about AI? A revolution in how tech is being innovated across the economy is clearly happening –  but what if we’ve got the winners and losers wrong? What if we’ve misjudged how AI will evolve as companies and individuals innovate AI solutions for themselves, seeking to preserve their data sovereignty and control of  their systems?

It’s a mighty confusing market out there. Is the US headed for recession or boom? Is the AI bubble going to inflate or pop? Is the IMF about to be buried in bail-out requests? How do you follow the narrative, trade and invest into the news flow. Or is it time for a new approach – follow the money, less the story.

Argentina’s financial crises are legendary – a 10th default is now in prospect. President Milei’s efforts to turn the nation around through austerity, government cuts, and economic shock therapy made him a poster boy for the Libertarian Project 2025. Surprisingly, they appeared to be working, till suddenly they aren’t. Now the USA looks set to bail out the nation.

October is coming. It is the scariest month for markets. And there is much to be scared about in Q4; unsustainable narratives driving bubbles, inflation and stagflationary threats, political uncertainty, and a market priced for perfection. I yell “correction”, but in the dying phases of a euphoric market – no one can hear you scream!