Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 3rd 2025 – Survived October? Back to full on Complacency…
“The real world is like rugby. Everything is connected. Every play has consequences.”
Yet again I was wrong and overly bearish. Markets survived October with barely a shrug. Everything is apparently fine and dandy.. nothing to worry about? Complacency and belief abound. We have been here before…. And what does Rugby tell us about markets?
Before I launch into markets… I have to step back and ask: what does Rugby have to teach us about markets and the world?
It’s all about approach…
Rugby is a metaphor for life. It is fast, it is confusing, every action has consequences, and the best team does not always win. It’s about strategic awareness: seizing opportunities and turning them into points, while stopping the opposition from doing the same. You need critical game skills and tactical prowess. The best teams excel by being motivated, being able to read the game laterally, and having the hard physical skills to triumph. That is why everyone fears the Kiwis and Irish. England should dominate European rugby with the biggest player pool but they don’t think much outside their drills and game-plan and repeatedly get beaten by smaller more passionate nations who are willing to think outside the proverbial box!
Rugby is not a bad model for success.
I was at Twickenham on Saturday, watching England beat Australia. (I was scrupulously neutral. I support Scotland First, and whoever is playing England second – but when it comes to Australia… I’ve never forgiven them for a stolen World Cup semi-final a couple of centuries ago.) I enjoyed the game immensely – especially when Harry Potter (“Harry Potter”…. I kid you not..) scored an 80 yard dash! I was very happy to watch England win – it will make them overconfident to the coming Six Nations Championship!
Rugby and American Football are not alike in any way. The American game is stop-start, breaking down the opportunities into a series of stage-managed scripted specialist plays that remove much of the jeopardy and the risks of how fluid play offers goes awry. The fact Scotland thrashed the visiting USA Eagles 85-0 at Murrayfield on Saturday (and that score actually flatters the Yanks) was not just about running the ball over the line – it was less about Scottish awareness of the openings as it was the American’s being utterly lost on the pitch.
I found myself wondering what Rugby, American Football and the current markets tell us, and the different national approaches. I was thinking how the scale of tech infrastructure spending in AI is a bit like one of these specialised team moments in American football… expensive, straight out the deck, but formulaic rather than innovative and lateral? Does doing things by the “play-book” mean we’re missing the fleeting real opportunities?
While our eyes are fixated by how much AI spending dominates the front pages, and whether another trillion on DataCentres and Compute will make US firms the necessary 5 yards… are we watching all the wrong things…? Like the real robustness of the consumer, jobs, debt and trade…? Just asking..
Give me Rugby anytime.
Back in the World of Markets
It’s hard work being a bear in a euphoric market. Yet again I was proved wrong. Every year I warn October is the cruellest month for markets. 2025 has let me down – yet again – by staying up. October saw markets tremble a little, but they did not wibble, wobble, correct or collapse.
In fact, last week, October markets finished on a high, convinced Trump’s trade accommodation with China, and the Fed Ease, will support continued upside. The burgeoning US deficit and the threat of tariff inflation show no sign of sinking the economy… (yet!)
There is absolutely no shortage of market money flowing in… both UK and US bonds have rallied through the month. I read that Meta (the MAGA 7 name most of my stock watchers reckon the weakest story) secured a $127 bln order book on its $30 bln bond issue to finance data-centre build outs.
In short… nothing to worry about… which is always the time to be worried..
One thing I have got right is the UK’s Gilt market – far from the UK being forced cap-in-hand to the IMF for a bailout, or the imminent collapse of the UK’s bonds on the back of something horrid… Gilts had a crackerjack month, yields tightening significantly. Naturally, all the GILT Trolls are out in force, warning about how the coming Nov 26th Budget will see the flights rebooked for a rescheduled IMF meeting and how Chancellor Rachel Reeves will destroy the economy with bad policies.
Not likely to happen. Gilts remain well bid. The worst the Chancellor can do is take difficult policy decisions – which are likely to be bond supportive – that may slow immediate growth in favour of long-term gilt stability.
The key thing to watch the next time you read an outlook for Gilts is the perspective of the author. Are they yet another angry Tory looking to talk down Labour? Are they spouting a Reform agenda? Are they just a troll looking to weaken global perceptions of the UK to favour enemies like Russia?
Or are they making valid market issues..? Few and far between…
Finally this morning.. I am reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History… Sorkin is a very readable and engaging writer – and is the show-running writer on the TV series Billions!. The new 1929 book feels like its written begging to be turned into a Netflix drama series… which I am sure it will be if what it’s warning about doesn’t happen first!
The thing that will strike readers are the multiple parallels with current market.. If there is one thing that the author seems determined to nail to reader’s foreheads, it’s that “this time it’s different” never is. It’s an easy book to read – and as such cash well invested for the train home..
NB – Morning Porridge Service this week will be mixed. She-Who-Is-Mrs-Blain broke her leg and knee sailing, and will be having a full knee reconstruction later this week. I’ve been demoted from husband to slave… fascinating to discover there is room in our house I never knew about full of magical stuff that washes clothes…. I will be taking her round multiple physio and surgeon appointments this week, then the hospital. I’ll be filling in Porridge comments when I can, but it means time for talking with clients (who inform everything in the Porridge) will be scarce.
Out of time , and back to looking after the most important thing in my world!
Bill Blain
CEO – Windshift Capital
Author – The Morning Porridge
Partner – Shard Capital
4 Comments
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Wow, Bill,
I’d say the Springboks do indeed respect the Kiwis and the Irish.
‘Fear,’ I am not so sure.
A Scot supporting England, unheard of!
Whatever have the Scots done for us anyway?
Well… the telephone.
What?
Alexander Graham Bell. He was Scottish.
Oh yes, all right, the telephone. But apart from the telephone, what have the Scots ever done for us?
Television. John Logie Baird.
Yes… television. But apart from the telephone and television—
Penicillin. Alexander Fleming.
Right, penicillin, fine, but apart from all that—
The steam engine.
And the bicycle!
And the adhesive postage stamp.
Yes, yes, yes. Apart from the telephone, television, penicillin, the steam engine, the bicycle and the postage stamp—
The Bank of England’s first governor was Scottish
Oh marvellous, anything else.
Golf.
Whisky.
Radar, the pneumatic tyre, colour photography, and deep-fried Mars Bars.
Look, the point is—
And they gave us Sean Connery.
All right, all right! Apart from whisky, golf, penicillin, television, the telephone, the steam engine, the Bank of England, the tyre, photography, radar, Sean flaming Connery, and… and deep-fried confectionery—what have the Scots ever done for us?
They invented the modern world, sir.
Oh aye, there’s that.
I wasnt supporting England. I was more not supporting Oz!
Best wishes to the missus for a speedy recovery