Europe is getting “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. The market to watch will be European Bonds – French OATs may just be the first to wobble. As the crisis unfolds (and it will) there may be opportunities to arbitrage the actions of the ECB to stem any crisis – watch this space.

China issued $2bln of Bonds via Saudi Arabia last week. Some think it’s part of a malign plan for China to disrupt the global dollar bond markets. It may be the trigger for a dramatic rethink and recalibration of how global markets finance future credit. As geopolitical flux deepens, how might a new bond markets evolve?

I am not particularly worried about tomorrow’s UK budget statement, but from the noise you’d think it’s the end of the world. I suspect there are elements of the UK’s political blob who will be very happy for Rachel Reeves to challenge Liz Truss in the incompetency stakes. She won’t, but the blob will try to undermine her – perhaps through the Gilts Market.

Labour might have a massive majority, but they are being mugged in broad daylight by the rump Tories who have persuaded the electorate they’re as bad as they were. That’s not good in an economy requiring big decisions to be taken and delivered competently. Labour is in danger of losing “Grip”.

 The stunning success of yesterday’s 14x covered 2040 Gilt confirms the new Labour Government has a wider range of options for the October Budget. It nails the lies fictitious “Bond Vigilantes” having been pouring in the market’s ear – the fact is the global bond market has just demonstrated confidence in Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

September is the start of the final 3-month rush to complete deals this year – it’s the busiest, most frenetic period of the financial year, and often the most dangerous for markets. What potential shockers lie around the corner?

The global economy is reaching a nexus point as multiple cycles and challenges coincide – successful nations will recognise and exploit the new opportunities as they emerge. In the UK, it’s time for the new Labour government to stop trying to be marginally better tories than the Tories were, and embrace debt solutions!

Trump has chosen his VP – JD Vance is an interesting choice. What does it mean for markets? Will we see a return to a new political stability, or is it confirmation it’s time to think long and hard as the global economy de-dollarises?

Watch the bond markets! In bonds there is truth. The current political ructions across Europe highlight the fragility of Europe’s cobbled together bond markets. If they break, the outlook for markets will be… interesting (and not in a good way.)