As the global economy stands on the precipice - about to step forward, Scotland announces its going to launch its debut bond issue. It is political theatre of the worst kind – there are so many reasons it’s such a bad idea – today. Tomorrow might be different.
Who wins from atrocity in Gaza? UK wages are still rising, but the threat is no longer wage spiral inflation, but job losses and a crash landing as the lag effects of rates rises, inflation and consumer spending create a perfect slough of despond.
Biden’s trip to Israel and Jordan vs Putin’s to Beijing - which will prove more meaningful? Meanwhile, Italy’s latest tax cuts and spending plans mimic the Trusterf*ck, but Meloni seems to have got away with it – for how long?
What does the Rugby World Cup tell us about markets? Expect the unexpected? Ignore nothing and don’t bet on favourites? Perhaps.. As the geopolitical threats pile upon each other, it’s time for caution. Forwards win games, but backs stop it being lost!
It seems to be the fate of The Labour party to inherit a nation riven by the consequences of previous governments. What is the likelihood Sir Keir Starmer will be able to steer the UK back into relevancy and attract foreign investment?
We need to be aware of the consequences of political failure and populism. What’s happening in the Middle East is a warning of how politics go wrong. We should pay close attention.
The threat list to global markets lengthens, but the Truth will be found in the bond markets. Like inflation and rising rates, the effects of a bond market slide are lagging – It’s going to take other financial assets time to catch up on the bond crash!
Events in Israel have been shocking. Its deliberate – Iran fermenting conflict to support its goal of Arab hegemony. It puts Saudi in an impossible position – and could move it closer to Russia and thus higher oil prices. Interesting times indeed. Hard Hats close.
The Tough Times will pass - how do you then create an economy that balances Growth and Prosperity, Politics and Justice, the Environment and Business, Wealth and Equality. Could it be as simple as setting the right interest rate?
The markets are panicking about bond yields. There is little to panic about. Higher rates will normalise the economy – but the commentariat loves to make a problem into a crisis. Y’day the BBC got it badly wrong, confusing the cost of new debt with debt service costs.
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