There has been much noise about the potential impact on global supply chains due to the shipping attacks in the Red Sea. There are imposing significant costs and delays – but are not as critical as many fear. Financing global trade is one of the oldest businesses in markets – and produces dull, boring predictable returns. What’s not to like…
The US is in a tizz about banning TikTok, taking the first steps towards protectionism, censorship and trade war – which will ultimately benefit no one. Both the US and China face significant economic challenges, and both are large markets. Is conflict the only choice?
Boeing is my pick as the worst company on the planet. Its’ stock is down 30% this year. It has failed multiple corporate governance challenges, but is also a victim of QE over-easy monetary policy: ultra-low interest rates enabled its cost-accountant management to wreck the company. Can it recover?
The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.
Apple doesn’t look so Magnificent these days. It’s made lots of money, but faces lots of challenges. It doesn’t look likely to lead in AI. It’s hardly a growth stock – it’s a mere value stock selling the same stuff it’s been selling for decades, while charging premium price to sell via its digital shopfront.
The US Primaries confirm its likely to be Biden vs Trump. While short-term markets don’t really care, it’s going to be a massive distraction and noise for investors deeply concerned at the future. While everyone else is panicked – that’s when opportunities emerge!
A key element of Blain’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity is a Sustainable Bond Market – in Bonds there is Truth. Its critical we understand how QE created massive market distortion by mispricing money, and make sure it does not happen again.
Europe will face massive difficulties rejigging NATO for a post US era. It will be vulnerable to Russian disinformation while facing acute production, labour and cooperation instabilities. But if it could be done…..
The UK’s broken infrastructure will cost trillions to repair. Water needs £150-200 bln – roughly what Water Companies have paid (PV) in dividends since 1990. Thatcher sold water for £1 bln. Today we face a £200 bln repair bill. Discuss.
This week’s Munich Security Conference saw much discussion around the Ukraine end game. The war is destroying Ukraine’s manpower – but what price peace? The West has to understand Russian weakness, and its own limits to impose a long-term and effective future for Ukraine – it rather depends on politics.
Disclaimer
This publication is protected by US, UK and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No License is granted except for the subscriber’s personal use. Rights will be pursued.
The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.
If you want to know what’s really happening and why.. welcome to the Porridge.
Financial Market Insights for Thinkers!
© Morning Porridge | All Rights Reserved | Website Design & Support by Orange Pixel
