Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategic compression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to play out as anyone predicts.
Catharsis is a marvellous thing. Reform and the Tories will duke it out for the British right, leaving Labour to get on with ever-so-slowly trying to fix Broken Britain – which could be evident by 2029. A great political battle is in prospect. Bring it on!
Markets are deluged in noise as the President remakes the world. We’re learning to roll with it – but the trick will be to spot the opportunities and gaps that will open. President Trump’s recent demands that US banks and lenders follow his orders is one such opportunity – and may crash a critical component of the US economy’s success.
This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?
Trump has shattered conventions on politics and diplomacy so why not financial markets as well? The Show Trial of Jerome Powell will see Trump seize the levers of monetary policy. For markets its dead simple – what will it mean for the economy and the rising prospects of a Stagflationary Bust in the US?
The frenetic pace of activity in Washington this week has left the commentariat stunned while dulling the market’s sensitivity to momentous events. Some of it is madness, while much of what Trump is doing makes curiously perverse sense – but what are the risks it all spectacularly unravels?
Markets have opened strongly in 2026 and seem remarkably sanguine towards rising geopolitical instability and shocks. They’re buying a rosy outlook of rising profits, lower rates and costs, and are blithely unconcerned by the risks of destabilisation from conflict or competition.
Venezuela bond prices have spiked higher on expectations of new investment, debt restructuring, and the monetisation of its oil resources. But how likely is it the nation can be reformed, attract new money, and satisfy the population while the old regime remains in place, and Washington demands to be paid?
Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Global Conflict in 2026. What comes next?
Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but not growth) in the 2010s, but won’t work when there is a strong inflationary impulse in place!
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