Rising market instability looks inevitable as the AI meltdown, the US Midterms and European political riots, and the geopolitical risks from the US vs China hegemonic challenge reach crisis points concurrently. It’s a classic Three Body Problem – making it almost impossible to logically predict what happens next. Sit back and watch for the opportunities – they will emerge, but not where you expect them.

Global conflict risks are rising. The wars in Ukraine and the Gulf are the openers. However, a global conflict for hegemonic power between China and the USA is more likely to take the form of “Grey” conflict than outright “kinetics” between them – triggering further inflation threats, political and economic disruption, and supply chain destabilisation driven by ongoing cyber-attacks, fake news and regional conflict. The resilience of nations will be the critical factor – and that means being prepared to defend themselves.

Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts.

You can’t keep a good market down. New record US levels seem to occur daily. But, why? The underlying picture of the US economy is not weak, but the political structures around it seem to be fraying. What might give and trigger the kind of reversal many expect, or might we get a more fundamental reassessment of what the USA will look like post-Trump?

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope. Markets will remain uncertain – while the world’s geopolitical polarity is shifting Gold remains the safe-haven play. That shift is being accelerated by events as the stability that fuelled the last 80 years of growth is undermined by bad politics and division.