The UK is in danger of becoming the unloved Piggy-in-the-Middle in terms of new global trade and geopolitical alliances. While China and the US place the pieces on the board, the value of Airstrip 1 is unclear. We have chosen where we now lie. We have chosen badly.

Europe is waking up to the reality of conflict, acutely aware of the need to defend itself, to invest and produce weapon systems to deter aggression in what is a vastly changed geopolitical landscape. With the right approach it may even become a driver of growth across the European economy.

The best way to honour them is to ensure we never have to do it again.

It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.

This week’s Munich Security Conference saw much discussion around the Ukraine end game. The war is destroying Ukraine’s manpower – but what price peace? The West has to understand Russian weakness, and its own limits to impose a long-term and effective future for Ukraine – it rather depends on politics.

The Chinese economy has stalled, buffeted my multiple issues from banking, property and demographics. What happens next? The consequences of a China crash or downturn will be multiple and could create further instability.

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

The Canary Wharf saga has been “interesting”, but as demand for office space evolves, is it over? The events in Russia are a reminder to markets about instability, uncertainty and just how dysfunctional it could all become.

There is a myth BRICS nations now exceed the GDP of the G7 West. It’s propaganda to boost a story of de-dollarisation, anti-G7 rhetoric and how China and its allies will create a stronger, more equal global market. It’s like watching Stags fight for dominance.

Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.