Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?

What is the point of the G7 meetings? The issues are clear: growth, defence, security and future threats – like the developing El-Nino. Instead, the leaders dance around the Orange Man, ignoring the fragmentation around them. If we are going to put Europe on track we have to identify the problems and address them at root. Capital Markets and Defence are examples of where it’s gone wrong – and we have solutions!

Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts.

There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony.

The Pope has published an Encyclical warning on the risks of an ill-considered rush towards AI. It comes at a time when AI is driving the markets, and AI leaders are whispering in Trump’s ear that regulation will destroy America’s lead. It’s not just the risk we will be turned to grey gloop by AI overlords, but how jobs, the economy, inequality and social equality are at all in play.

I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. Trump, Musk and Bill Winters. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. This is a market perhaps too focused on the personalities, and not enough on the realities.

Investing in defence was a sadly neglected skillset for many years following the end of the Cold War. Defence primes became utility like seeking to preserve margins as real budgets declined on the peace-dividend. The War in Ukraine has highlighted many things, but critically that what the Primes are selling isn’t what’s going to win the next War. To invest in defence – you need insights into the future of the battlespace.

To understand markets and the economy you need to understand how it really works; the where, what, when, why and how of the frictions that make for imperfect markets interreact. That includes politics. But trying to explain these factors is now subject to Social Media censorship – the reality is a distributed Ministry of Truth straight out of 1984. Social media now determines who can talk about markets and what they can say. Referring to incompetent politics gets you banished to the outer limits of conspiracy finance!

Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.

The imminent departure of Sir Keir Starmer (it is a matter of when, not if) is bread and circuses. His defenestration will distract and amuse the chattering political classes and infuriate voters as yet more evidence of Broken Britain. But we need to be honest – it's not any single “leader’s” fault. 60 years of bad decisions piled on poor policies have landed the UK in the mire of the present. It can be fixed – but it will need a reset.