One man’s bubble is another’s irrefutable investment thesis. After a year when so many markets, and individual assets, have defied expectations and common sense, one stands out for its incredible and largely speculative upside – Bitcoin. No other “asset” so divides the market. Time for a deep dive into what it might and might not be.

Politics was an overarching theme in 2024 – and, regrettably, will remain so in 2025 as global investors figure out likely policy action by central banks and the growth outlook for 2025. “This time it’s different” (TTID) and FOMO remain the most malign forces acting on asset prices, but is a new full blown European Sov Debt Crisis also on the cards?

 Who would possibly want to be a billionaire? Hated by the mob, a victim of evil governments holding you back with tax threats while denying your basic human rights – like a platinum gold bank account! Give me poverty anytime…

Bitcoin breaking $100k was a judder moment in a market already awash with signs and portents suggesting irrational exuberance has gone too far, and a correction is coming. Meanwhile… the UK govt declares war on Porridge.

Bitcoin is either the greatest thing ever, or a complete Ponzi. Take your pick. The Shills cite multiple reasons its going ever higher. It looks to be in the speculative mania phase - joining a long and distinguished list of scams that sought to draw in the greater fools. While some target $750k, the price history may suggests $25,000 as a more realistic entry, and even that could be unsustainable if the euphoric bubble finally pops.

There are some mornings when the headlines just scream madness. So many improbable events and market moves surround us, we’re in danger of becoming desensitised to the mounting risks. It is ever thus when markets enter the irrational phase. Are we missing the fact Crypto might have captured the White House?

Questions, questions, everywhere this morning! Bitcoin has staged a spectacular rally since the US election. I am assured - by crypto-shills - this makes it a proper financial asset. Oh, here was me thinking it was money. Nope. It’s an asset. Really? Also, a podcast on why Musk should buy Boeing. And what does the new US defence secretary likely mean for the US military and the future of NATO-CANZUS.

The Media think they’ve identified Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin. While I doubt it, it raises enormous questions that about the credibility of Bitcoin, its adoption, and cast doubt on the foundation myths Crypto Shills push. Satoshi’s bitcoin wallets are currently worth over $67 bln! If the Truth emerges, Bitcoin could pop.

The arrest of Telegram’s Pavel Duroc earlier this week was a significant moment. Are Western Governments going to clamp down on Criminality across Social Media? Its critical they understand how Crypto Shills and Bad-Actor Propagandists have exploited the opportunities presented by Social Media to spin their scams.

This week will be about listening to Central Banks. Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin Conference in Nashville over the weekend was an eyeopener – could Crypto be the issue that wins the election for Trump? The conference might has pressed the Bitcoin reset upside button.