Blain’s Morning Porridge 19^th October 2026 – Try Forest Bathing… It might improve sentiment.

“A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything”

Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction?

LINK TO PODCAST

Key Takeaways:

• The real economic crisis is being felt at household level. Markets focus on inflation, rates and outlook in terms of prices, but rising costs and diminished opportunities explain crashing consumer confidence.
• The political unrest – so visible in France and India – highlight the growing sense of public disillusionment with political failure and corrupt bureaucracy.
• Populism offers easy answers, but, as Trump is demonstrating, ineffective solutions. The repair of failing state infrastructure and services is long-term while blocked opportunities for all workers (from young to mature) is breeding resentment.
• Political incompetence will reduce economic strength – while resilient and adaptable nations will exhibit a greater ability to absorb shocks, innovate and adapt themselves out of crisis.
• The USA’s loss of global standing illustrates incompetency, while Ukraine is example of resiliency. The War in Iran demonstrates how Iran is winning because the USA has failed to achieve its objectives, while Ukraine demonstrates how it is winning by frustrating Russia’s objectives.
• Social cohesion is a factor in the strength of nations. Political competency and household stability underpin successful economies – and are more important long-term than quarterly earnings or month-to-month growth.

This is going to be another… interesting week. Breathe deep. Earnings reports, European inflation and a host of other data lie ahead, but who knows what else is about leap out and mug us all?

How come the Scandinavians always seem so relaxed? If there were time, I would suggest a walk through the woods before reading the Morning Porridge or listening to the news this morning. Try some forest-bathing in the marvellous colours of autumn to raise your happiness quotient – but since we all have busy days and misery is the only common theme in markets these days, this morning’s illustration is a panel I painted last night after cheering myself up immeasurably being led around the trees by our wonderful wee dog Dinner Jacket yesterday.

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If the proverbial spaceman was to come visit Planet Earth, he would likely judge us all mentally disturbed. Around the world ploughshares are being hewed back into swords, the insanely rich are beggaring everyone in pursuit of more, and the proles have the temerity to riot over the apparent injustice of it all. Even as climate change threatens environmental destruction, thawing permafrost across Siberia threatens to release primordial diseases and bugs to slay us all, and conflict risks rise… extinction level problems get less column inches than which Ivanka-lookalike dumb-blonde might be the next presidential press-secretary.

In the 13^th Century a series of damp harvests (perhaps caused by a mini-ice age) triggered multiple outbreaks of ergot poisoning, which some have linked to St Vitus Dance – social madness often in the form of dancing mania.) Today we don’t need fungal spores to trigger a riot… Failing politics is enough – and that’s as true in France as it is in India.

If you watch markets the big issues are all Macro – the direction of interest rates and inflation, the balance between taxes and growth, and supply chain factors. Within markets, when analysts get their microscopes out to focus on the economy it’s usually to examine company balance sheets, or to figure the Total Addressable Market (TAM) of whatever the tech revolution de jure is – in order to sell more stocks.

There are very few economic figures with global reach and heft who can command attention about the real issues that roil the flolloping global economy… The flashpoints last week – in the shocking riots across France, or the way the Indian establishment upended the “Cockroach” protests to defend the world’s largest democracy from democratic protest – sum up growing crisis at the basic Micro-level: People are not happy…

We get pages and pages of analysis of why the Macron presidency has failed, but very little on how the lack of opportunities, the lack of motivation and the indifference around them causes bored young French kids to burn down schools and the Hotel d’Ville in Limoges. It’s a different story in India… students see their life-chances being stolen from them by corrupt bureaucracy and want justice.

It’s not just the young. Whether it be failing state bureaucracy, political incompetence and indifference, job and income insecurity, the escalating cost of living, the breakdown in traditional career paths, or just the overwhelming sense that everything is heading towards rackshit… the result is the rising backlash against those seen as responsible – traditional politics, hence the rise in populist politics – the politics of shifting the blame.

Today’s mainstream politicians are an unimpressive lot, but populists are a rung or so lower. Some claim good intentions but have neither the political knowledge or wit to deliver their grandiose schemes of betterment, usually ill-conceived sketches strung together to tell electorates what they want to hear: that it’s all the fault of immigrants or unfair competition, and if we deport them all now or stop imports, the economy will magically restore itself… No. It won’t.

People desperately want to believe in messiahs who will lead them somewhere better.

That’s the real issue in the USA at present. Trump presented himself as the businessman with the competency and transactional skills to redirect and restore American exceptionalism. Instead, (exactly as predicted) the last 20 months have been a disaster for America’s long-term future – consequential chaos had exposed how Trump’s career as a lacklustre developer squandering his inheritance left him singularly unprepared as a real leader. Trump’s only lasting claim to fame will be for successfully profiting from the presidency but chiefly remembered as the fool who accelerated the decline of world’s most powerful hegemon.

The smart-billionaires who’ve backed Trump must have known it would happen but will likely double down on some version of the “Nerd Nazi” end of democracy theme – that complex techno-states will require strong, dictatorially leaning, autocratic government. What’s the difference between a socialist control and command economy and a fascist command and control economy? The colour of the flags…

The utter misery of the clusterf*ck Trump has created around the Iran war, or his monetisation of the US presidency… or the hilarity of UK political outlook, where Kemi Badenough tells Andy Burnham exactly what he’s doing wrong – despite the fact her Tories just spent 14 years in office doing SFA.

All these things and more hide the fact that life can actually be pretty damn fine if we could just enjoy it without the threatening letters from the taxman, rising rents, redundancy notices or an insurance company hiding in technicalities to avoid paying up on a claim, making it less bearable.

I am told resiliency is the key.

Resilient people and resilient nations tend to do well. They are calmer, less entitled, and roll with the inevitable punches…

Perhaps that is why Trump hates Zelensky and Ukraine so much. Maybe he is not a Soviet-era Asset in Putin’s pocket after all… just a demented old boy who doesn’t like the fact Ukraine has surprised everyone by holding off Russia, while innovating and adapting its wartime economy and military execution at incredible speed.

I got a missive from one of my Trumptard correspondents over the weekend. He wrote how the Iran War “is about to break the USA’s way.” His opinion (presented with typical MAGA bombast as irrefutable fact), is how a new US Task force centred round the mighty USS Theodore Roosevelt, will change the power equation completely, reopen the straits, and that Iran will be beaten because Trump (sitting in the Oval Office) is unafraid.

Unlikely. The last 3 decades have illustrated some clear truths about asymmetric warfare between powerful and powerless nations. Ukraine and Iran both demonstrate that the aggressor nation has to win, but all the attacked nation has to do…. is not lose. They do so by being more resilient and more adaptable…

Out of time, and back to the day job…

Bill Blain

Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital

Meanwhile, don’t forget about my new book: The Battle for Hamble

You can read a review on the Society of Professional Economist’s website here.