Valuations in the USA look insane. Surely stock prices must be a bubble? Maybe. Maybe not – the USA has created a self-driving technology machine, a conveyor belt of tech innovation that’s set to continue delivering value and corporate profits. To understand it – ditch traditional thinking about economies.

One year after the Hamas atrocities, the tragedy of Gaza and South Lebanon continue. The region remains on fire, and could ignite further conflict and instability including inflation, recession and impact the US election. To understand what happens next – how did we get here?

The China Stock market rally comes on the back of hefty stimulus – and leaves many investors wondering if it’s sustainable or whether it’s wise to invest in China at this time. They may be missing the point – the China rally may be part of a wider Asian shift. Plus the end of UK coal.

Markets seem unstoppable – but history is about mean reversions; usually through a deep correction or damaging crash. Storm clouds are on the horizon as the US election presages a period of inclement uncertain conditions. The next 4 years will be “interesting”, but let’s get through the next 4 potentially volatile months first. 

Beryl is the fastest, strongest and earliest hurricane to hit the Caribbean. The price of the humble potato will see substantial inflation as miserable harvests come in. What do these two apparently unconnected events tell us about inflation and risk?

Next week I will be either stuck in the queues at Heathrow, or sailing round Greece. Time to unwind and think about the state of the World. Or… maybe not ruin my break by scaring myself! Some thoughts on Global Macro.

Compare and contrast Boeing and Aramco. Boeing – an extraordinary example of corporate failure. In the Middle East, soon to be King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is using Aramco’s wealth to shake the current regional order.

It’s become clear this week the market outlook has changed utterly – higher rates are now the new normal, and that will have consequences on demand at a time when supply remains in flux. Meanwhile, global instability is rising. Markets and populations need to understand reality – while campuses tear themselves appart it is Iran driving the horror in the Middle East, but good luck explaining it to your Keffiyeh wearing kids.

Today the markets will be focused entirely on Tech earnings and future income expectations. Smart money watches Supply Chains more carefully – and critical to global supply chains is China. While the West is focused on Demand, Asia is thinking about the security of supply.

Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal clearly focuses the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.