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ECB

  • Central Banks, Political risk, EU, ECB, Politics, Currency, Debt, European Sovereign Credit, Government,
    January 26, 2024

    The ECB needs a political leader like Lagarde.

    Christine Lagarde is under attack from within The ECB from staff who say they mistrust her. They clearly don’t understand their jobs or her role. Lagarde is a politician leading a political central bank. She has already achieved many of her goals. Generals don’t need to be popular – they need to be effective.

    read more
  • Financial Crisis, Central Banks, ECB, Debt, Equities, Capitalism, Economy, Bonds, Government, Government Policy, interest rates,
    November 30, 2023

    Interest Rate Scenarios: Stick with the Normalisation Cure, or another Puff of QE Skunk?

    Expectations of early interest rate cuts are high, especially as recession signals are set to rise through Q1 2024. Will Central Banks stay the course and normalise interest rates, or will be take the easy option of further low interest rate distortion?

    read more
  • Political risk, Financial Crisis, Banks, UK Debt, ECB, Politics, Debt, UK, corporate debt, Economy, Europe,
    November 23, 2023

    Why we won’t fix the UK by selling Natwest to irrational retail investors….

    Jeremy Hunt tried hard to be interesting, but it was all a bit forgettable. An election is coming. How bad will it be? As for selling Natwest to fund UK growth – has Hunt actually considered the outlook for banks as the risk outlook deepens?

    read more
  • Bank of England, Central Banks, Fed, ECB, Inflation,
    September 22, 2023

    Higher for Longer – Markets Could Struggle With the New Reality

    The Bank and The Fed have served notice they will remain vigilant – higher for longer! Markets would be wrong to expect early easing. Wage Inflation and Energy remain very real threats over the medium term – it may trigger volatility as markets understand the new reality.

    read more
  • Political risk, Trump, Central Banks, Politics, ECB, Artificial Intelligence, Capitalism, Economy, USA,
    September 14, 2023

    Soft or Crash Landing, Impeachment, and ARM IPO – what a lark…

    Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.

    read more
  • ECB, Financial Assets, Markets, Equities, Economy, Geopolitics,
    September 11, 2023

    Why the deliberate mistake? What is really going on in the Global Economy?

    The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?

    read more
  • Central Banks, ECB, Artificial Intelligence, Capitalism, Bonds, Inflation, interest rates,
    August 24, 2023

    Nvidia sets the tone while the US looks a better bet than Yoorp!

    Nvidia confirms the AI everything bubble! FOMO means everyone will play catch up! There is a growing divergence likely as inflation, growth and interest rates spells deep trouble for Europe and the ECB, while the USA recovers and the UK muddles through.

    read more
  • Political risk, Politics, sustainability, ECB, Businesses, Capitalism, Economy, Government Policy,
    July 24, 2023

    Political Expediency vs Saving the Planet

    Dangerous times ahead as politicians weigh up the pros of sacrificing long-term climate and environmental goals for short-term electoral gains.

    read more
  • Climate Change, Pensions, ECB, Ukraine, UK, NHS, Europe, Geopolitics, USA, Russia,
    November 8, 2022

    General Winter has always been Russia’s Most Able Military Leader.

    COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.

    read more
  • Financial Crisis, Central Banks, ECB, Currency, Debt, corporate debt, Capitalism, Economy, Market Crash, Energy,
    October 14, 2022

    What comes next? Markets are mean reverting, are you prepared?

    Well, that was a fun week… but the UK’s travails are the tip of the iceberg of market pain facing the global economy. More political, geopolitical, liquidity and leverage driven crises are coming as markets reverse out the QE era. Don’t Panic!

    read more
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The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.

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