Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal clearly focuses the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.
It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.
The AI bubble is running out of steam… which may be a very apt metaphor. Value in AI is driven by supply scarcity, which will be addressed by competition and capacity. The next issue is how AI innovation is over-exaggerated – we will require much more powerful computational tools to create next level Intelligence.
The UK faces multiple economic problems – all of which may be individually solved with considerable effort, but collectively look a clusterf*ck of monumental proportions. When it takes office, Labour will be given 100 days to solve them all. Who would want to be an MP?
Liz Trump – now there is a scary thought! Liz Truss is the news again – still in denial. Trump is in court and angry. Crypto shills are talking BitCoin higher on the halving and presenting detailed charts on why it’s definitely going to $300k. Madness stalks the Earth.
Markets will breathe easy if Israel forgoes retaliation for Iran’s apparently failed drone strike, but Iran remains the fundamental crisis at the heart of the Middle East. Peace and prosperity will remain elusive while Iran plots regional instability.
Blain’s Morning Porridge April 11 2024: Stickflation will remain chaotic [...]
The pressure on the City of London as a global centre of financial excellence is mounting – a disconnect between costs and fees, an irrelevant stock market, and a dysfunctional fixation on process and bureaucracy leaves the investment management industry struggling.
Very early start on the radio this morning, but Jamie Dimon and I are aligned; the global economy is at an inflection point as higher rates, stickflation, debt and climate costs hit the reset button. It doesn’t have to be a bear-reset and could present massive opportunities! Embrace change!
The strength and resilience of US employment, and the growing sense a recession has been dodged, hides fundamental imbalance: if consumers are too broke to consume, then how are corporate earnings set to rise? Doh!
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