Bill Blain

ill Blain is a published author on financial markets, contributor and editor of the Morning Porridge. He is a well-known market commentor, and a practicing investment banker in the alternative private debt and equity sector. His day job combines his role as Strategist for Shard Capital, the leading investment management firm, and heading the firm’s Alternatives Group – financing Private debt and equity deals, and direct lending transactions. His clients include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, insurance and pension managers, credit funds and family offices.

Joined: December 17, 2020
Articles: 854
Comments: 596

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Capitalism, central banks, Monetary Policy

Balloons and Common Sense. Lots of improbable things to consider over breakfast.

Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!

Bill Blain
February 6, 2023
9 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, corporate debt, Economy, risk management

Adani – What does it mean for markets? A risk crisis is coming!

The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!

Bill Blain
February 3, 2023
4 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Air Travel, aviation finance

The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2nd 2023 – The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever? “I was listening. Listening to the rain. I was hearing. I was hearing something else.” This morning: The last…

Bill Blain
February 2, 2023
5 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Businesses, Capitalism, central banks, distortion, Economy, EVs, Fraud, geopolitics, Global Growth, Markets, Recession

Euphoric Hasty Markets are Mispriced – Steady and Calm – Consider Tesla.

Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.

Bill Blain
January 31, 2023
3 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, China

What’s the real story in China?

While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?

Bill Blain
January 27, 2023
3 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, central banks, commodities, Gold

Buy Gold to fund Bottom Fishing!

Gold – can’t eat it, can’t use it, but its everything crypto never was: tangible, exchangeable, a store of value, and a kitty for when things get tough. In uncertain markets…. Don’t forget the yellow stuff.

Bill Blain
January 26, 2023
6 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Rail, UK

Trains: An Open Letter to Paul Holmes, MP (Conservative)

I have worked in finance for nearly 40 years. I have withstood phycotic managers, overcome multiple business hurdles, survived a major health scare and triumphed as a small firm guy against big vested interests.. but I am pretty sure it will British Railways that will put me in a box. This morning a rant:

Bill Blain
January 24, 2023
5 Comments

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Economy, Political risk, Politics, UK

Don’t worry about the UK – I’ve got an idea…

Gosh… The Rest of the World wonders how the UK has suddenly become a corruption-raddled third world kleptocracy. The optics are terrible. Even the Russians are moving out! Fortunately, there may be a solution: let’s be British about it, and show everyone we can do political knavery better than anyone else!

Bill Blain
January 23, 2023
6 Comments