The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament.

The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from Defence Primes towards financing the start-ups that can change the battlespace with new tech that is adaptable, available now, cheap and good-enough.

Today is the 81st anniversary of VE Day – the end of the Second World War in Europe. Markets are fixated on rising stock prices and probably won’t notice. Complacency is the danger. The Wars in Ukraine and Iran highlight success and failure and point towards a very different future world than the expected one. There are massive implications for markets – but that’s a tomorrow problem for markets focused on “now”.

Something different for Morning Porridge Readers this morning, a guest post from my chum David Murrin.

A new wind may be blowing in Washington. Trump has energetically bluffed and blustered his first 100 days, but now the wheels look loose. Time for some sackings and a refocus. Its beginning to happen and may actually prove positive. The place to start has been Ukraine and Defence.

Trump’s efforts to broker a Ukraine peace with Russia over the heads of Europe and Ukraine was never anything but posturing. Europe should step up and take control – it’s a risk strategy, but would be the making of Europe. Rearmament could give Europe the economic boost and purpose it requires, and discourage further conflict.

Month 1 of Trump V2 has been…. “interesting”. The playbook is not to win friends, but to shock former allies into compliance with Trump’s America First agenda. The results may not be what Trump and his minions expect. There will be push back. New Alliances and Trade patterns will form - with or without America.

Trump and Putin will agree Peace in Ukraine. The USA will walk away, leaving Europe to deal with the consequences of an unbeaten Russia. A new cold war will descend. That could provide the spark for a European rebirth around rearmament and a new unity of purpose, or instability as Russia seeks to pick off weak nations.

Today is Halloween, when the lines between this world and others, the past and future, alternative timelines and other realities, cross and oft merge into each other.. at least according to Celtic legend. This morning it just so happens a Morning Porridge from October 2026 has crossed the divide and snuck into my inbox….

This week’s Munich Security Conference saw much discussion around the Ukraine end game. The war is destroying Ukraine’s manpower – but what price peace? The West has to understand Russian weakness, and its own limits to impose a long-term and effective future for Ukraine – it rather depends on politics.