Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.
Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.
Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.
Nearly a year on Ukraine is unbeaten. How will it end, and how will markets react? Putin is upping the stakes, hoping he can bluff and threaten his way to a result. It’s not about Ukraine surviving, but what happens if Putin loses badly and Russia collapses as a failed state. Sanctions don’t work – what else can the West do?
The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked.
Europe faces a crunch from energy and austerity, and is vulnerable to policy mistakes, disunity and disinformation
It’s too easy to write off Europe to the multiple threats of recession, low-growth, energy and inflation, but it has previously surprised us by its’ resilience! How will it fare with potential energy dislocation, fiscal and monetary risks and Russian disinformation? Can the Energy war be won?
The UK is not bust or broke. Smart investors are actively looking for bargains in the wake of the Trusster**ck. Its time for change to monetise the value of the UK for the UK!.
The biggest crisis the West faces may not be the challenges of energy, confidence, inflation and growth, but restoring trust in the narrative by cutting out the disinformation planted by our enemies. Time for some leadership.
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.
The world is watching for signs confirming global recession, so naturally markets have rallied (!). Political instability is resolved to be replaced with some bleak truths and spending choices. So.. steady at the wheel, nothing to worry about then?