The Chinese economy has stalled, buffeted my multiple issues from banking, property and demographics. What happens next? The consequences of a China crash or downturn will be multiple and could create further instability.

Nations succeed because they are ruthless in pursuit of their goals; good and bad. Western politicians have decided the big issue is illegal migration – making it conditional and a priority in front of the really important challenges around growth, stability, geopolitics and avoiding conflict. Its Political Failure of the Worst Kind.

There is a lot of doom and gloom out there – but we really shouldn’t flaff about how bad markets may get in 2024! Its just the downturn of the business cycle! Realising that’s what it is means the bottom is approaching… but not without some peril!

The Gods of Chaos have brought together an alliance to bring down the West. If its not the weather, it will be Russia, Gas prices, the Middle East and Oil, or maybe the prime global commodity – Chips – is the next thing they will target. I'm staying long Gold.

Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.

Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.

Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.

Nearly a year on Ukraine is unbeaten. How will it end, and how will markets react? Putin is upping the stakes, hoping he can bluff and threaten his way to a result. It’s not about Ukraine surviving, but what happens if Putin loses badly and Russia collapses as a failed state. Sanctions don’t work – what else can the West do?

The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked.

It’s too easy to write off Europe to the multiple threats of recession, low-growth, energy and inflation, but it has previously surprised us by its’ resilience! How will it fare with potential energy dislocation, fiscal and monetary risks and Russian disinformation? Can the Energy war be won?