Narratives are what drive stock markets. Robots are seen as a massive multi-trillion-dollar Total Addressable Market – with strategic and social implications that will utterly change economies. Musk expects to sell millions every year. The reality is likely to be very different – robotics and society will evolve and probably end up unlike anything we envisage today.

It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting.

Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone.

The AI revolution is very real, but the froth around its valuations is not. The real value of AI won’t be in how hyperscalers establish themselves to “rent” us AI services, but how the real economy reacts to the opportunity, and smart firms learn to innovate it to make their businesses better and more profitable. The real upside is immense.

What’s not to like about markets which keep going up? Lots of participants are increasingly certain the current upside momentum is unstoppable. Some of us suffer from the problem of thinking too much and wondering if its sustainable. Being a bear can feel very lonely.

So much to worry about. Stop. Why bother? What’s not to like about short-term markets. Nvidia is selling more and more and more chips, SpaceX half-circumnavigated the planet, and US Treasuries care not a jot about Fed Independence. Give me another puff of whatever these guys are smoking!

Three risks for markets to fathom this morning: What Tesla the Meme-stock means for the Mag7, how AI risks are multiplying, and what doing a course on AI revealed about its’ true purpose.

Ozzy Osbourne was an unlikely Prince of Darkness… but who’s US President? The “Trade Agreement” with Japan is a massive pre-emptive strike opportunity for Japanese Automakers. Will it benefit US Manufacturing? No way! And don’t forget your “Bullsh*t Bingo Card” for tonight’s Tesla numbers.

What’s not to like as the sun rises on a beautiful spring morning? Well… As the UK watches its public infrastructure tumble into wrack and ruin as a result of privatisation and financialisation, the USA is excited Elon Musk is doing such a great job at DOGE saving their tax-dollars. They might want to avoid a look at the shaky edifice of Musk’s tech empire as its core, Tesla, increasingly looks a hollow sham.

Elon Musk is an extraordinary character. His successes are multiple. Now he has taken up battle against US Debt – putting him into new direct conflict with the establishment. While markets continue to support him there are concerns he is too thinly spread. That is not the problem – the risk is Tesla is overpriced, vulnerable and if it tumbles… what might follow? History shows when overblown confidence snaps… there is seldom a swift recovery.