A bounce back rally is underway – but its reactive, based on the hopes of “buy-the-dippers”, and the fundamentals haven’t changed. Many weakening Tech stocks are seeing their foundations exposed as built on sand.
Tech stocks have taken a thumping this year – a well-timed reality check or a threat to bring down the whole market? Probably time for a clean out of all the speculative, improbable and fantastical perpetual motion machines that beguiled IPO and SPAC investors during the easy money era. Reality bites and it’s time to get real..
Tesla’s rise into the $1 trillion club is extraordinary - proving that listening to what the momentum crowd is buying, while suspending disbelief and fundamental analysis is one road to success. Hertz is a lesson in seizing the moment – its stock gains and free publicity from its new EV fleet will likely exceed the cost of the cars!
Christmas is cancelled as supply chains crumble, stagflation mounts and jobs are lost… How long will it last, will there be a buying opportunity, and what will a new normal economy look like?
Elon Musk’s robot left us all giggling over the weekend, but may just prove to be the stunt that breaks Tesla. The suspension of disbelief that’s fuelled unicorn tech valuations in the face of reality these past many years feels like its breaking-down as reality bites.
Yesterday’s events across Tech served to remind us it’s a fluid sector where what we believe one day may be false the next, but deep down there is bedrock. Crypto currencies saw a last-chance bubble pop, while Tesla genuinely surprised me by producing solid results – which don’t for one moment change my perspective its fatally overvalued. Meanwhile, the latest China clampdown on listed stocks shocked markets, but reminds us we need to think differently about the wakening Dragon.
What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex their muscles and national buying power. That may prove problematic for western firms, and especially Tesla. But also it raises questions about investment imperatives on China growth vs flatline in the West.
Central Banks are playing the “lower for longer” interest rate card to reassure markets on growth. There are always consequences of such actions – ranging from bubbles, delusion and fraud. Eventually consequences trigger change, and reassessment – which is driving the rotation from Hope as a Strategy Tech into Fundamental stocks – Autos are a good example.
Why is Europe suspending the AstraZeneca Vaccine? What’s the real story? And; The trick to investing in disruptive tech is to spot the solution to a need, rather than an answer looking for a question.
It’s not what you know about value – it’s what the market believes that matters when it comes to price. Will Call My Agent win the streaming wars? And will widespread adoption fuel a massive boom in Socks… just the shills say has happened in Bitcoin?
