Don’t assume inflation is licked, don’t assume interest rates will stop rising, don’t assume there aren’t further bank failures to come, don’t assume politics and society will cope well, but don’t assume it’s all end of the world. In periods of financial uncertainty there is opportunity…
esterday’s US CPI numbers look good at a glance, but the reality is the Western economies may face ongoing sticky inflation and long-term stagflation while reversing the economic damage of a decade plus of monetary experimentation. That requires new investment approaches.
SVB is a crisis averted, but the market wasn’t paying close attention which spells opportunity. There are bigger risks from central banks being distracted from fighting inflation and normalising rates. That’s the real crisis!
Inflation across the West looks to be more entrenched than markets believed – Higher for Longer. Maybe it’s time to accept it’s going to take time to fix, and look elsewhere for returns.
It’s a big week for inflation data, but markets have caught a dose of common sense as the reality of higher for longer interest rates settles in. The question of why the market believes overly frothy narratives is fascinating – understanding why is critical to bet against them.
Gold – can’t eat it, can’t use it, but its everything crypto never was: tangible, exchangeable, a store of value, and a kitty for when things get tough. In uncertain markets…. Don’t forget the yellow stuff.
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
Something different this morning – is the inflation threat really about to be corked back in its bottle? My head of research, Ernst Knacke thinks so.. so this morning I’m letting him argue the point on where inflation is headed and how to position for lower inflation next year!
As we approach US Thanksgiving – the start of holiday markets, the markets seem convinced we’re back on an upward path, but the reality is the new economic and inflationary cycle may only just have begun..
In Bonds There is Truth – but until Real bond yields turn positive they remain financially repressive. If Central Banks “pivot” from tightening rates to address inflation too early, markets will remain fundamentally distorted.
