Trump has shattered conventions on politics and diplomacy so why not financial markets as well? The Show Trial of Jerome Powell will see Trump seize the levers of monetary policy. For markets its dead simple – what will it mean for the economy and the rising prospects of a Stagflationary Bust in the US?

There are some mornings when the headlines just scream madness. So many improbable events and market moves surround us, we’re in danger of becoming desensitised to the mounting risks. It is ever thus when markets enter the irrational phase. Are we missing the fact Crypto might have captured the White House?

I admit to being surprised by the Fed’s 50 bp ease last night. It makes sense though: it will ease economic tensions significantly and support the “good” economy in its current stable growth grove. Naturally Trump supporters will be furious: Jay Powell has confirmed the USA is in a good place.

This week will see the Fed start to ease, but the question is pace? Do they go big and create potential concerns on a hard landing – potentially scaring the horses - or do they hold a steady course, a modest ease to guide markets that rates are normalising. Whatever the Fed does needs coordination with policy on the future path of the economy.

Rates, Inflation, Deficits, the Dollar and the future of everything might just depend on how Tuesday’s televised US Election Debate goes? There will be a winner and a loser. Next week’s Fed Meeting will be more nuanced – but could it ultimately be as important over the long-term?

I just found my best reason to sell Nvidia, confirming we’re at the top of the market. What might come next? How about 20-years of rising inflation, rising rates and a global commodities super-cycle as nations scrabble to secure future strategic resources?

This is not just about recession or tech stock valuations – it’s a wider everything, including the kitchen-sink, confidence slough of market instability and uncertainty that’l hurt. Next few days might get interesting… Move along now… nothing to see here…

It was once holy scripture that government bonds were the risk-free-rate from which all risks were priced. In the last decade markets have changed. The bond market is increasingly hollow and thin. The reality is few folk outside bonds pay attention – central banks set bond rates. Good or bad thing?

Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal clearly focuses the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.

Despite the robust US economy, the market’s prime concern remains when and how quickly the Fed will ease interest rates. What if they don’t? We’re heading into a new normalised post GFC interest rate environment, and long-term higher rates will be a good thing!