Buy Gold to fund Bottom Fishing!
Gold – can’t eat it, can’t use it, but its everything crypto never was: tangible, exchangeable, a store of value, and a kitty for when things get tough. In uncertain markets…. Don’t forget the yellow stuff.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Tag interest rates
Forget inflation – its interest rates that will set markets and drive new growth.
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
The Inflation Genie – jumping back into the bottle?
Something different this morning – is the inflation threat really about to be corked back in its bottle? My head of research, Ernst Knacke thinks so.. so this morning I’m letting him argue the point on where inflation is headed and how to position for lower inflation next year!
Its all about inflation, interest rates and wages…
As we approach US Thanksgiving – the start of holiday markets, the markets seem convinced we’re back on an upward path, but the reality is the new economic and inflationary cycle may only just have begun..
In Bonds There Is Truth, But Don’t Expect Central Banks to Pivot Early
In Bonds There is Truth – but until Real bond yields turn positive they remain financially repressive. If Central Banks “pivot” from tightening rates to address inflation too early, markets will remain fundamentally distorted.
Inflation and Earnings set to take centre stage this week – likely to be a tough one!
Inflation will dominate the headlines while the US earnings season kicks off. The prospects for stocks on the back of falling numbers and crashing consumer sentiment bode ill for recovery, and strongly suggest there is further market downside to come in Q3.
What a week – recession threats and political instability causes markets to rally!
The world is watching for signs confirming global recession, so naturally markets have rallied (!). Political instability is resolved to be replaced with some bleak truths and spending choices. So.. steady at the wheel, nothing to worry about then?
The Game of Markets – Season 3 Opener – After the Meltdown..
After the brutal lessons of April, May will set the tone for a new market – lots of threats, but full of opportunity.
Taper, Rates, Bond Markets and Consequences
The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the “processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…
Did you feel the judder as the Fed warned rates will rise?
Fed Head Jerome Powell set the market wagging y’day, triggering a mini-taper tantrum in bonds and stocks when he revealed no immediate rate hike but the possibility/likelihood of 2 rate rises in 2023. Bonds and Stocks fell. Bonds are unlikely to get much better in coming months – unless we see a market wobble that forces Central Banks to intervene, or something that creates a flash flight to quality. We are now in new market phase – the correlation between bonds and equities is looking vulnerable to a reversal when the free money that’s fed the rally since 2010 dries up!
This is getting….. “interesting”.