It’s too easy to write off Europe to the multiple threats of recession, low-growth, energy and inflation, but it has previously surprised us by its’ resilience! How will it fare with potential energy dislocation, fiscal and monetary risks and Russian disinformation? Can the Energy war be won?
Lots of comment about imminent crisis in the ECB and European Bond Spreads. Relax. It’s a difficult circle to square, but the politics mean its more likely solutions will be found, and its buy Italy, Spain and Greece on the dips!
The Fed just aggressively hiked 75 bp in the midst of the first major correction since 2009, making clear the game has changed, and we’re into a whole new cycle. While the market correction remains ongoing, when it flips, it will flip swiftly. Already there are positive signals to be seen – but only if you look outside the box.
What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.
Global Stock markets seem to be living the dream, but under the surface there are serious concerns. In Yoorp the ECB makes its power play this week to confirm its place within the political trinity of States, EU and ECB by effectively handing itself control of the fiscal and industrial policy levers that could power up Europe. No one tell the Germans…
Europe’s plans for a €1 trillion bond programme will create a single US Treasury scale market, but who agreed it? The big risks are the imperfect non-democracy’s funding programme will magnify political volatility, while empowering bad political deals.
Demand for the EU’s Social Bond deal was strong as ESG funds scramble to find qualifying assets, but just how much ESG is enough? Has ESG got overly Woke?