There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony.

What’s not to like about the World Cup? Forget the noise, forget the rancour – and celebrate the greatest festival of visceral tribal sport on the planet. Life is not about the money in your wallet, or the price of your stocks – but the laughs you laugh, the sighs you sigh when the penalty is missed, the cheers that cheer when the goal is scored, and the memories in the treasury of your heart!

UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news.

The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from Defence Primes towards financing the start-ups that can change the battlespace with new tech that is adaptable, available now, cheap and good-enough.

I am genuinely excited by the SpaceX IPO. The valuation means I won’t touch the stock with a bargepole, but it should be a great business with multiple opportunities ahead of it. However, I suspect it will become another story where Musk promises much in terms of solutions which don’t get delivered.

You can’t keep a good market down. New record US levels seem to occur daily. But, why? The underlying picture of the US economy is not weak, but the political structures around it seem to be fraying. What might give and trigger the kind of reversal many expect, or might we get a more fundamental reassessment of what the USA will look like post-Trump?

The Pope has published an Encyclical warning on the risks of an ill-considered rush towards AI. It comes at a time when AI is driving the markets, and AI leaders are whispering in Trump’s ear that regulation will destroy America’s lead. It’s not just the risk we will be turned to grey gloop by AI overlords, but how jobs, the economy, inequality and social equality are at all in play.

I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. Trump, Musk and Bill Winters. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. This is a market perhaps too focused on the personalities, and not enough on the realities.

Investing in defence was a sadly neglected skillset for many years following the end of the Cold War. Defence primes became utility like seeking to preserve margins as real budgets declined on the peace-dividend. The War in Ukraine has highlighted many things, but critically that what the Primes are selling isn’t what’s going to win the next War. To invest in defence – you need insights into the future of the battlespace.

Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.